Memphis at UNLV NCAA, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: August 30, 2026 at 2:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors UNLV by 8.9 points, giving them a 70% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 59.9 combined points, with UNLV at 34.5 and Memphis at 25.6. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: UNLV favored by 4.0 points, a 4.9-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, UNLV's margin lands between -13.6 and +31.3 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: UNLV -8.9 / Memphis +8.9 Moneyline: UNLV -231 / Memphis +231 Win probability: UNLV 69.8% / Memphis 30.2% Projected total: 59.9 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- UNLV: 1576.0, Memphis: 1515.4 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor UNLV Memphis ----------------- ---- ------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue -1.4 -2.1 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 -20.0 home_field_vector -1.0 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: UNLV -4.0 / Memphis +4.0 Consensus moneyline: UNLV -198 / Memphis +164 Market no-vig win probability: UNLV 63.7% / Memphis 36.3% Spread range across books: -4.5 to -4.0 (9 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T00:20:03.124731+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book UNLV EV% Memphis EV% ----------- ---- ----- ------- ------ betmgm -190 +6.5% +160 -21.4% betonlineag -180 +8.5% +157 -22.3% betrivers -186 +7.3% +148 -25.0% betus -185 +7.5% +159 -21.7% bovada -195 +5.5% +165 -19.9% draftkings -198 +5.0% +164 -20.2% fanduel -192 +6.1% +158 -22.0% lowvig -180 +8.5% +157 -22.3% mybookieag -189 +6.7% +152 -23.8% Spread: Book UNLV Memphis ----------- ----------- ----------- betmgm -4.0 (-110) +4.0 (-108) betonlineag -4.5 (-110) +4.5 (-110) betrivers -4.0 (-114) +4.0 (-112) betus -4.5 (-110) +4.5 (-110) bovada -4.5 (-110) +4.5 (-110) draftkings -4.0 (-112) +4.0 (-108) fanduel -4.5 (-105) +4.5 (-115) lowvig -4.5 (-106) +4.5 (-106) mybookieag -4.0 (-110) +4.0 (-110) Line movement: opened UNLV -3.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -4.0 (August 30, 2026 at 12:20 AM UTC), 193 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Memphis 25.6 -- UNLV 34.5 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------ ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- UNLV margin -13.6 -2.7 +8.7 +20.6 +31.3 Total points 38.7 49.0 60.0 71.3 81.5 Probability UNLV covers the market spread: 61.0% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: UNLV Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jackson Arnold QB Passing yards 183.8 100-275 Pass attempts 26.3 18-38 Completions 16.5 10-24 Passing TDs 0.68 50% 1+, 15% 2+ Rushing yards 20.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.57 43% 1+, 11% 2+ Taz Reddicks WR Receiving yards 52.0 16-107 Receptions 3.6 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jai'Den Thomas RB Rushing yards 50.5 9-81 Carries 11.0 6-13 Rushing TDs 0.83 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Receiving yards 18.8 -- Receptions 3.1 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jaylon Glover RB Rushing yards 40.3 -- Carries 7.9 2-12 Rushing TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Receiving yards 12.6 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Taeshaun Lyons WR Receiving yards 37.7 2-62 Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Amorion Walker WR Receiving yards 36.3 1-59 Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Blesyng Alualu-Tuiolemotu LB Tackles 5.3 2-8 Jake Pope S Tackles 4.9 2-8 Lucas Conti DL Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ Elias Rudolph LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ MEMPHIS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Dallan Hayden RB Rushing yards 51.0 10-80 Carries 10.0 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Receiving yards 14.1 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Manny Covey RB Rushing yards 49.6 8-88 Carries 8.6 3-13 Rushing TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Receiving yards 23.3 4-40 Receptions 2.8 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Tychaun Chapman WR Receiving yards 44.7 9-72 Receptions 2.7 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Brady Kluse WR Receiving yards 32.5 -- Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.08 8% 1+ Hunter Tipton TE Receiving yards 32.1 8-48 Receptions 3.6 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.11 11% 1+ Bryce Dorsey WR Receiving yards 28.9 -- Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Mike Montgomery LB Tackles 7.8 5-11 Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ J'Mond Tapp DL Tackles 5.2 4-7 Sacks 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ UNLV recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Memphis recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10111