Massachusetts at Rutgers NCAA, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 3, 2026 at 10:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Rutgers by 26.1 points, giving them a 92% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 46.6 combined points, with Rutgers at 36.4 and Massachusetts at 10.3. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Rutgers favored by 29.5 points, a 3.4-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Rutgers's margin lands between +4.4 and +48.1 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Rutgers -26.1 / Massachusetts +26.1 Moneyline: Rutgers -1149 / Massachusetts +1149 Win probability: Rutgers 92.0% / Massachusetts 8.0% Projected total: 46.6 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Rutgers: 1484.3, Massachusetts: 1149.8 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Rutgers Massachusetts ----------------- ------- ------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +3.5 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +4.1 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Rutgers -29.5 / Massachusetts +29.5 Consensus moneyline: Rutgers -9000 / Massachusetts +2500 Market no-vig win probability: Rutgers 96.3% / Massachusetts 3.7% Spread range across books: -30.5 to -29.0 (7 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:03.708661+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Rutgers EV% Massachusetts EV% ---------- ------- ----- ------------- ------- betmgm -10000 -7.1% +3000 +148.3% draftkings -9000 -7.0% +2500 +108.3% Spread: Book Rutgers Massachusetts ----------- ------------ ------------- betmgm -29.5 (-110) +29.5 (-108) betonlineag -29.5 (-105) +29.5 (-115) betrivers -30.5 (-114) +30.5 (-109) betus -29.5 (-105) +29.5 (-115) bovada -29.0 (-110) +29.0 (-110) draftkings -29.5 (-110) +29.5 (-110) lowvig -29.5 (-101) +29.5 (-111) Line movement: opened Rutgers -30.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -29.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 194 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Massachusetts 10.3 -- Rutgers 36.4 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------- ---- ----- ----- ----- ----- Rutgers margin +4.4 +14.7 +26.2 +37.5 +48.1 Total points 25.3 35.3 46.8 58.0 68.3 Probability Rutgers covers the market spread: 42.2% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: RUTGERS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Dylan Lonergan QB Passing yards 199.5 115-347 Pass attempts 27.6 19-44 Completions 17.3 11-28 Passing TDs 0.67 49% 1+, 14% 2+ Rushing yards 0.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.17 15% 1+ Antwan Raymond RB Rushing yards 95.6 54-196 Carries 14.8 9-26 Rushing TDs 0.95 61% 1+, 25% 2+ Receiving yards 31.5 12-76 Receptions 2.8 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ KJ Duff WR Receiving yards 70.8 35-140 Receptions 4.3 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.65 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Clay Thevenin RB Rushing yards 68.7 28-123 Carries 10.4 5-12 Rushing TDs 0.79 55% 1+, 19% 2+ Receiving yards 33.3 14-59 Receptions 3.3 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kameron Anthony TE Receiving yards 21.1 -- Receptions 1.7 -- Receiving TDs 0.28 25% 1+ Ty Morris LB Tackles 6.3 4-8 Kaj Sanders DB Tackles 5.4 3-8 Malachi Davis DL Sacks 0.69 50% 1+, 15% 2+ Rondo Porter DL Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ MASSACHUSETTS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Justin Williams-Thomas RB Rushing yards 41.6 0-69 Carries 6.5 1-9 Rushing TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Reece Adkins TE Receiving yards 32.2 8-56 Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.32 27% 1+ Kezion Dia-Johnson WR Receiving yards 32.1 -- Receptions 2.7 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.35 29% 1+ Max Dowling TE Receiving yards 29.5 6-59 Receptions 2.3 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.60 45% 1+, 12% 2+ Elijah Faulkner RB Rushing yards 29.4 -- Carries 7.0 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Dallas Elliott WR Receiving yards 14.1 -- Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Tyler Martin LB Tackles 9.2 6-12 Timmy Hinspeter LB Tackles 8.6 6-14 Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ Keith Sarkodieh S Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rutgers recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Massachusetts recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10112