Akron at Wake Forest NCAA, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 3, 2026 at 11:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Wake Forest by 14.2 points, giving them a 79% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 49.6 combined points, with Wake Forest at 31.8 and Akron at 17.5. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Wake Forest favored by 24.5 points, a 10.3-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Wake Forest's margin lands between -7.7 and +36.4 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Wake Forest -14.2 / Akron +14.2 Moneyline: Wake Forest -377 / Akron +377 Win probability: Wake Forest 79.0% / Akron 21.0% Projected total: 49.6 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Wake Forest: 1525.8, Akron: 1359.5 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Wake Forest Akron ----------------- ----------- ----- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +2.5 +2.8 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector -0.6 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Wake Forest -24.5 / Akron +24.5 Consensus moneyline: Wake Forest -3600 / Akron +1500 Market no-vig win probability: Wake Forest 94.0% / Akron 6.0% Spread range across books: -24.5 to -24.0 (9 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:03.711865+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Wake Forest EV% Akron EV% ----------- ----------- ------ ----- ------- betmgm -3000 -18.3% +1300 +193.7% betonlineag -2800 -18.2% +1216 +176.1% betrivers -5000 -19.4% +1300 +193.7% betus -2800 -18.2% +1250 +183.2% bovada -4000 -19.0% +1200 +172.7% draftkings -3600 -18.8% +1500 +235.7% fanduel -4000 -19.0% +1400 +214.7% lowvig -2800 -18.2% +1216 +176.1% mybookieag -3366 -18.6% +1030 +137.1% Spread: Book Wake Forest Akron ----------- ------------ ------------ betmgm -24.0 (-108) +24.0 (-110) betonlineag -24.5 (-113) +24.5 (-107) betrivers -24.0 (-112) +24.0 (-112) betus -24.5 (-110) +24.5 (-110) bovada -24.0 (-110) +24.0 (-110) draftkings -24.5 (-105) +24.5 (-115) fanduel -24.5 (-105) +24.5 (-115) lowvig -24.5 (-109) +24.5 (-103) mybookieag -24.0 (-110) +24.0 (-110) Line movement: opened Wake Forest -22.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -24.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 194 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Akron 17.5 -- Wake Forest 31.8 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------------ ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Wake Forest margin -7.7 +2.7 +14.1 +26.0 +36.4 Total points 28.0 38.1 49.2 60.6 71.3 Probability Wake Forest covers the market spread: 27.5% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: WAKE FOREST Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Gio Lopez QB Passing yards 189.5 105-242 Pass attempts 27.3 18-37 Completions 17.7 12-23 Passing TDs 1.00 63% 1+, 26% 2+ Rushing yards 11.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Carlos Hernandez WR Receiving yards 67.1 32-142 Receptions 4.0 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Wondame Davis Jr. WR Receiving yards 62.5 27-128 Receptions 2.7 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.48 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Ty Clark III RB Rushing yards 49.0 8-88 Carries 8.8 3-14 Rushing TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Receiving yards 27.1 8-53 Receptions 2.5 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Chase Tyler WR Receiving yards 42.9 7-75 Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Landon Morris TE Receiving yards 31.6 8-40 Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.85 57% 1+, 21% 2+ KD Daniels RB Rushing yards 27.7 -- Carries 5.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Kamrean Johnson TE Receiving yards 24.5 1-36 Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Aiden Hall LB Tackles 5.7 3-9 Davaughn Patterson DB Tackles 5.7 4-8 Langston Hardy DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Gabe Kirschke DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ AKRON Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jordan Gant RB Rushing yards 59.1 18-105 Carries 15.6 10-22 Rushing TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Receiving yards 15.3 -- Receptions 2.6 2-3 Receiving TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Marcel Williams WR Receiving yards 52.7 17-108 Receptions 4.5 2-9 Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Kyan Mason WR Receiving yards 39.4 4-73 Receptions 3.3 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Sean Patrick RB Rushing yards 34.2 -- Carries 9.5 4-16 Rushing TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Receiving yards 18.1 -- Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Cameron Monteiro WR Receiving yards 24.8 -- Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Conner Cravaack TE Receiving yards 23.8 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Jamari Somerville S Tackles 4.9 2-10 Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ Mehki Flowers DB Tackles 4.8 2-8 Cyrus Durham DL Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Wake Forest recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Akron recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10113