Colorado at Georgia Tech NCAA, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 4, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Georgia Tech by 12.7 points, giving them a 77% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 57.2 combined points, with Georgia Tech at 34.8 and Colorado at 22.2. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Georgia Tech favored by 6.5 points, a 6.2-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Georgia Tech's margin lands between -9.1 and +35.0 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Georgia Tech -12.7 / Colorado +12.7 Moneyline: Georgia Tech -327 / Colorado +327 Win probability: Georgia Tech 76.6% / Colorado 23.4% Projected total: 57.2 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Georgia Tech: 1537.7, Colorado: 1399.3 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Georgia Tech Colorado ----------------- ------------ -------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue -0.7 +1.7 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +4.8 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Georgia Tech -6.5 / Colorado +6.5 Consensus moneyline: Georgia Tech -238 / Colorado +195 Market no-vig win probability: Georgia Tech 67.5% / Colorado 32.5% Spread range across books: -6.5 to -6.0 (9 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:03.728796+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Georgia Tech EV% Colorado EV% ----------- ------------ ------ -------- ------ betmgm -235 +9.2% +195 -30.9% betonlineag -225 +10.6% +189 -32.3% betrivers -265 +5.5% +200 -29.7% betus -225 +10.6% +190 -32.1% bovada -240 +8.5% +200 -29.7% draftkings -238 +8.8% +195 -30.9% fanduel -255 +6.6% +205 -28.6% lowvig -225 +10.6% +189 -32.3% mybookieag -260 +6.0% +196 -30.7% Spread: Book Georgia Tech Colorado ----------- ------------ ----------- betmgm -6.5 (-112) +6.5 (-105) betonlineag -6.0 (-110) +6.0 (-110) betrivers -6.5 (-115) +6.5 (-108) betus -6.0 (-110) +6.0 (-110) bovada -6.5 (-105) +6.5 (-115) draftkings -6.5 (-110) +6.5 (-110) fanduel -6.5 (-112) +6.5 (-108) lowvig -6.0 (-106) +6.0 (-106) mybookieag -6.5 (-110) +6.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Georgia Tech -7.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -6.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 194 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Colorado 22.2 -- Georgia Tech 34.8 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Georgia Tech margin -9.1 +0.9 +12.3 +24.5 +35.0 Total points 35.5 45.6 56.9 68.4 78.9 Probability Georgia Tech covers the market spread: 63.6% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: GEORGIA TECH Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Justice Haynes RB Rushing yards 98.0 57-144 Carries 13.9 8-19 Rushing TDs 1.40 75% 1+, 41% 2+ Receiving yards 16.8 -- Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Alberto Mendoza QB Passing yards 67.0 -- Pass attempts 7.7 -- Completions 4.5 -- Passing TDs 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Rushing yards 27.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Malachi Hosley RB Rushing yards 64.6 24-122 Carries 9.8 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Receiving yards 21.5 2-40 Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jordan Allen WR Rushing yards 26.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.27 23% 1+ Receiving yards 34.6 -- Receptions 3.3 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Gavin Harris TE Receiving yards 32.5 9-52 Receptions 2.8 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ E.J. Lightsey LB Tackles 6.3 4-9 Kyle Efford LB Tackles 6.1 3-9 Cayman Spaulding LB Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ Brayden Manley DE Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ COLORADO Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Julian Lewis QB Passing yards 203.8 120-350 Pass attempts 27.5 19-45 Completions 16.3 10-27 Passing TDs 0.97 62% 1+, 25% 2+ Rushing yards 6.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Danny Scudero WR Receiving yards 80.4 45-166 Receptions 5.6 4-9 Receiving TDs 0.73 52% 1+, 17% 2+ Kam Perry WR Receiving yards 61.1 26-102 Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.31 27% 1+ Joseph Williams WR Receiving yards 56.8 21-97 Receptions 4.0 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.42 34% 1+, 7% 2+ Micah Welch RB Rushing yards 47.5 6-75 Carries 9.6 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Receiving yards 13.0 -- Receptions 2.0 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ DeKalon Taylor RB Rushing yards 46.9 6-73 Carries 8.9 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 30.3 11-51 Receptions 3.1 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.76 53% 1+, 18% 2+ Zach Atkins TE Receiving yards 23.8 -- Receptions 2.6 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Gideon ESPN Lampron LB Tackles 10.0 7-12 Naeten Mitchell DB Tackles 7.0 5-9 Santana Hopper DL Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Vili Taufatofua DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Georgia Tech recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Colorado recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ----- ------- ------ 2025 GT 27 COLO 20 GT ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10114