UAB at Illinois NCAA, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 4, 2026 at 1:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Illinois by 18.6 points, giving them a 85% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 56.9 combined points, with Illinois at 37.8 and UAB at 19.2. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Illinois favored by 28.5 points, a 9.9-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Illinois's margin lands between -3.5 and +41.1 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Illinois -18.6 / UAB +18.6 Moneyline: Illinois -571 / UAB +571 Win probability: Illinois 85.1% / UAB 14.9% Projected total: 56.9 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Illinois: 1578.1, UAB: 1357.1 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Illinois UAB ----------------- -------- ---- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +2.5 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +15.1 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Illinois -28.5 / UAB +28.5 Consensus moneyline: Illinois -10000 / UAB +3000 Market no-vig win probability: Illinois 96.8% / UAB 3.2% Spread range across books: -28.5 to -28.5 (9 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:03.739731+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Illinois EV% UAB EV% ----------- -------- ------ ----- ------- betmgm -5000 -13.2% +2000 +213.1% betonlineag -5000 -13.2% +1550 +146.0% draftkings -10000 -14.1% +3000 +362.2% fanduel -10000 -14.1% +2400 +272.8% lowvig -5000 -13.2% +1550 +146.0% mybookieag -5000 -13.2% +1150 +86.4% Spread: Book Illinois UAB ----------- ------------ ------------ betmgm -28.5 (-105) +28.5 (-112) betonlineag -28.5 (-110) +28.5 (-110) betrivers -28.5 (-108) +28.5 (-115) betus -28.5 (-110) +28.5 (-110) bovada -28.5 (+100) +28.5 (-120) draftkings -28.5 (-108) +28.5 (-112) fanduel -28.5 (-110) +28.5 (-110) lowvig -28.5 (-106) +28.5 (-106) mybookieag -28.5 (-110) +28.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Illinois -27.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -28.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 194 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: UAB 19.2 -- Illinois 37.8 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Illinois margin -3.5 +6.9 +18.6 +30.4 +41.1 Total points 35.3 45.6 57.0 68.4 78.6 Probability Illinois covers the market spread: 28.7% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: ILLINOIS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Katin Houser QB Passing yards 266.0 182-319 Pass attempts 30.8 22-38 Completions 19.8 14-23 Passing TDs 2.28 90% 1+, 66% 2+ Rushing yards 22.3 -- Rushing TDs 1.30 73% 1+, 38% 2+ Alex Perry WR Receiving yards 85.1 50-130 Receptions 4.6 2-7 Receiving TDs 1.32 73% 1+, 38% 2+ Jayshon Platt WR Receiving yards 67.1 32-122 Receptions 3.5 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.76 53% 1+, 18% 2+ Ca'Lil Valentine RB Rushing yards 66.9 26-109 Carries 11.4 6-19 Rushing TDs 0.46 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Receiving yards 20.1 1-36 Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Aidan Laughery RB Rushing yards 56.0 15-86 Carries 9.3 4-12 Rushing TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Receiving yards 16.8 -- Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Hudson Clement WR Receiving yards 52.9 17-86 Receptions 3.3 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.57 43% 1+, 11% 2+ Kaden Feagin TE Receiving yards 18.0 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.32 28% 1+ Matthew Bailey DB Tackles 6.4 4-9 Will Holmes LB Tackles 5.1 2-9 Darrell Prater DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Joe Barna DL Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ UAB Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Ryder Burton QB Passing yards 164.1 80-299 Pass attempts 21.9 13-38 Completions 13.6 8-24 Passing TDs 1.08 66% 1+, 29% 2+ Rushing yards 1.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.31 27% 1+ Ja'Vin Simpkins RB Rushing yards 45.1 4-69 Carries 10.8 5-14 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 12.4 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Bam McReynolds RB Rushing yards 41.2 0-65 Carries 10.3 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Receiving yards 11.6 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kaleb Brown WR Receiving yards 39.7 4-66 Receptions 2.8 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Antonio Ferguson TE Receiving yards 19.3 -- Receptions 2.2 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Muaaz Byard LB Tackles 5.5 2-9 Darrell Sweeting DB Tackles 4.2 2-6 Elijah Hall DL Sacks 0.80 55% 1+, 19% 2+ J'Quan Mason DE Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Illinois recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games UAB recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10115