San José State at Eastern Michigan NCAA, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 4, 2026 at 10:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Eastern Michigan by 11.3 points, giving them a 74% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 53.5 combined points, with Eastern Michigan at 32.5 and San José State at 21.1. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Eastern Michigan favored by 3.5 points, a 7.8-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Eastern Michigan's margin lands between -10.8 and +33.5 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Eastern Michigan -11.3 / San José State +11.3 Moneyline: Eastern Michigan -289 / San José State +289 Win probability: Eastern Michigan 74.3% / San José State 25.7% Projected total: 53.5 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Eastern Michigan: 1427.8, San José State: 1317.7 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Eastern Michigan San José State ----------------- ---------------- -------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue -6.0 -11.9 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +3.1 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Eastern Michigan -3.5 / San José State +3.5 Consensus moneyline: Eastern Michigan -185 / San José State +154 Market no-vig win probability: Eastern Michigan 62.2% / San José State 37.8% Spread range across books: -4.5 to -3.5 (6 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:03.749278+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Eastern Michigan EV% San José State EV% ----------- ---------------- ------ -------------- ------ betmgm -190 +13.3% +160 -33.1% betonlineag -168 +18.5% +148 -36.2% betrivers -200 +11.4% +155 -34.4% betus -200 +11.4% +170 -30.5% bovada -180 +15.5% +155 -34.4% draftkings -185 +14.4% +154 -34.6% fanduel -178 +16.0% +146 -36.7% lowvig -168 +18.5% +148 -36.2% mybookieag -218 +8.3% +167 -31.3% Spread: Book Eastern Michigan San José State ----------- ---------------- -------------- betmgm -4.5 (-110) +4.5 (-108) betonlineag -3.5 (-105) +3.5 (-115) betrivers -4.5 (-112) +4.5 (-112) betus -4.5 (-110) +4.5 (-110) bovada -3.5 (-110) +3.5 (-110) draftkings -3.5 (-112) +3.5 (-108) fanduel -3.5 (-110) +3.5 (-110) lowvig -3.5 (-101) +3.5 (-111) mybookieag -5.0 (-110) +5.0 (-110) Line movement: opened Eastern Michigan -4.0 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -3.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 193 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: San José State 21.1 -- Eastern Michigan 32.5 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------------- ----- ---- ----- ----- ----- Eastern Michigan margin -10.8 -0.1 +11.4 +22.9 +33.5 Total points 32.2 42.4 53.6 64.5 75.0 Probability Eastern Michigan covers the market spread: 67.6% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: EASTERN MICHIGAN Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Noah Kim QB Passing yards 301.9 218-390 Pass attempts 33.5 25-38 Completions 20.7 14-24 Passing TDs 2.06 87% 1+, 61% 2+ Rushing yards 20.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.55 42% 1+, 10% 2+ Harold Mack WR Receiving yards 58.4 23-131 Receptions 3.7 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Nick Devereaux WR Receiving yards 56.0 20-102 Receptions 3.6 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.68 49% 1+, 15% 2+ Joey Mattord RB Rushing yards 36.7 -- Carries 7.4 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 14.6 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Benson Prosper WR Rushing yards 15.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 32.3 -- Receptions 3.0 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Tanner Lemaster TE Receiving yards 22.7 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Joshua Long TE Receiving yards 22.4 -- Receptions 3.3 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.11 11% 1+ Bryce Llewellyn DB Tackles 7.6 6-10 Zach Mowchan LB Tackles 6.4 4-11 Quincy Byas DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Barry Manning LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ SAN JOSÉ STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Luke Weaver QB Passing yards 152.5 68-278 Pass attempts 25.6 17-46 Completions 15.8 10-29 Passing TDs 1.17 69% 1+, 33% 2+ Rushing yards 25.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Jabari Bates RB Rushing yards 57.8 17-78 Carries 10.4 5-14 Rushing TDs 0.49 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Viliami Teu RB Rushing yards 43.0 2-61 Carries 7.8 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Cooper Hoch WR Receiving yards 23.5 -- Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Isaiah Buxton CB Tackles 5.0 4-10 Caleb Womack CB Tackles 4.1 2-8 Etu Finau DL Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Dylan Lee LB Sacks 0.17 15% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Eastern Michigan recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games San José State recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10116