UTEP at Oklahoma NCAA, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 5, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Oklahoma by 27.2 points, giving them a 93% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 45.4 combined points, with Oklahoma at 36.2 and UTEP at 9.1. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Oklahoma favored by 41.5 points, a 14.3-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Oklahoma's margin lands between +4.8 and +49.4 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Oklahoma -27.2 / UTEP +27.2 Moneyline: Oklahoma -1270 / UTEP +1270 Win probability: Oklahoma 92.7% / UTEP 7.3% Projected total: 45.4 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Oklahoma: 1638.8, UTEP: 1293.1 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Oklahoma UTEP ----------------- -------- ----- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +0.3 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +7.2 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Oklahoma -41.5 / UTEP +41.5 Spread range across books: -42.0 to -40.5 (9 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:03.762863+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Oklahoma EV% UTEP EV% ---------- -------- ----- ----- ------ mybookieag -100000 -7.2% +1575 +22.3% Spread: Book Oklahoma UTEP ----------- ------------ ------------ betmgm -42.0 (-105) +42.0 (-112) betonlineag -41.5 (-115) +41.5 (-105) betrivers -42.0 (-112) +42.0 (-112) betus -41.5 (-110) +41.5 (-110) bovada -40.5 (-120) +40.5 (+100) draftkings -41.5 (-118) +41.5 (-102) fanduel -41.5 (-115) +41.5 (-105) lowvig -41.5 (-111) +41.5 (-101) mybookieag -42.0 (-110) +42.0 (-110) Line movement: opened Oklahoma -40.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -41.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 194 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: UTEP 9.1 -- Oklahoma 36.2 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------- ---- ----- ----- ----- ----- Oklahoma margin +4.8 +15.3 +27.3 +38.8 +49.4 Total points 23.5 34.0 45.4 56.7 67.0 Probability Oklahoma covers the market spread: 20.6% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: OKLAHOMA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- John Mateer QB Passing yards 198.7 114-268 Pass attempts 31.4 22-38 Completions 18.9 12-23 Passing TDs 1.03 64% 1+, 28% 2+ Rushing yards 28.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Xavier Robinson RB Rushing yards 64.7 24-122 Carries 10.0 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.44 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Receiving yards 20.4 1-30 Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Tory Blaylock RB Rushing yards 58.5 17-106 Carries 10.6 5-17 Rushing TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Receiving yards 20.4 1-38 Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Isaiah Sategna III WR Rushing yards 10.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 48.4 13-81 Receptions 4.7 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Trell Harris WR Receiving yards 41.1 6-76 Receptions 4.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Parker Livingstone WR Receiving yards 29.0 -- Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Rocky Beers TE Receiving yards 27.6 4-49 Receptions 3.2 2-6 Receiving TDs 1.10 67% 1+, 30% 2+ Hayden Hansen TE Receiving yards 14.8 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.18 17% 1+ Owen Heinecke LB Tackles 6.8 4-10 Kip Lewis LB Tackles 6.3 4-10 Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Danny Okoye DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ UTEP Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Lamar Sperling RB Rushing yards 27.8 -- Carries 7.1 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.10 9% 1+ Receiving yards 7.8 -- Receptions 1.5 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Judah Ezinwa TE Receiving yards 26.3 2-38 Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jaylan Brown WR Receiving yards 22.6 -- Receptions 2.1 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Marcus Torres WR Receiving yards 14.0 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Elijah McCoy RB Rushing yards 12.8 -- Carries 5.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Royal Capell WR Receiving yards 11.5 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jayden Wilson LB Tackles 8.0 5-12 Xavier Smith S Tackles 5.8 4-8 Ekow Taylor DE Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ Vashon Brunswick II LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Oklahoma recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games UTEP recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10117