Toledo at Michigan State NCAA, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 5, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Toledo by 5.7 points, giving them a 63% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 42.9 combined points, with Michigan State at 18.7 and Toledo at 24.4. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Michigan State favored by 10.0 points, a 15.7-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Michigan State's margin lands between -27.6 and +16.1 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Michigan State +5.7 / Toledo -5.7 Moneyline: Michigan State +170 / Toledo -170 Win probability: Michigan State 37.0% / Toledo 63.0% Projected total: 42.9 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 12:02 PM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Michigan State: 1391.0, Toledo: 1561.0 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Michigan State Toledo ----------------- -------------- ------ elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +3.0 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector -3.5 -- consecutive_road -- -15.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Michigan State -10.0 / Toledo +10.0 Consensus moneyline: Michigan State -395 / Toledo +310 Market no-vig win probability: Michigan State 76.6% / Toledo 23.4% Spread range across books: -10.5 to -10.0 (9 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T12:20:03.464820+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Michigan State EV% Toledo EV% ----------- -------------- ------ ------ ------- betmgm -375 -53.2% +310 +158.4% betonlineag -415 -54.1% +327 +169.1% betrivers -480 -55.3% +340 +177.3% betus -415 -54.1% +330 +171.0% bovada -435 -54.5% +325 +167.8% draftkings -395 -53.7% +310 +158.4% fanduel -430 -54.4% +330 +171.0% lowvig -415 -54.1% +327 +169.1% mybookieag -450 -54.8% +320 +164.7% Spread: Book Michigan State Toledo ----------- -------------- ------------ betmgm -10.0 (-110) +10.0 (-108) betonlineag -10.0 (-112) +10.0 (-108) betrivers -10.5 (-109) +10.5 (-114) betus -10.0 (-110) +10.0 (-110) bovada -10.0 (-115) +10.0 (-105) draftkings -10.0 (-115) +10.0 (-105) fanduel -10.5 (-105) +10.5 (-115) lowvig -10.0 (-108) +10.0 (-104) mybookieag -10.5 (-110) +10.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Michigan State -10.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -10.0 (August 30, 2026 at 12:20 PM UTC), 195 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Toledo 24.4 -- Michigan State 18.7 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- Michigan State margin -27.6 -17.3 -5.5 +5.8 +16.1 Total points 21.5 31.5 43.2 54.5 64.4 Probability Michigan State covers the market spread: 17.8% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: MICHIGAN STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Alessio Milivojevic QB Passing yards 129.2 45-212 Pass attempts 25.3 16-41 Completions 15.9 10-26 Passing TDs 0.97 62% 1+, 25% 2+ Rushing yards 0.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.10 9% 1+ Cam Edwards RB Rushing yards 56.3 15-89 Carries 13.3 8-18 Rushing TDs 0.90 60% 1+, 23% 2+ Receiving yards 19.6 0-34 Receptions 2.9 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Marvis Parrish RB Rushing yards 43.7 3-66 Carries 9.3 4-12 Rushing TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Receiving yards 13.2 -- Receptions 2.7 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Chrishon McCray WR Receiving yards 32.8 -- Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.27 23% 1+ KK Smith WR Receiving yards 27.7 -- Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.28 25% 1+ Dion Crawford LB Tackles 7.1 4-10 Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Nikai Martinez DB Tackles 6.3 4-9 Eli Coenen DL Sacks 0.17 15% 1+ TOLEDO Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Terrell Crosby Jr. WR Receiving yards 34.6 -- Receptions 2.4 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.19 18% 1+ Connor Walendzak RB Rushing yards 31.1 -- Carries 7.4 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jacob Newell TE Receiving yards 10.8 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Langston Long LB Tackles 3.8 1-6 Armorion Smith S Tackles 3.8 2-6 Nicholas Thompson S Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Ezra Odinjor DE Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Michigan State recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Toledo recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10118