Miami at Stanford NCAA, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 5, 2026 at 1:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Miami by 20.1 points, giving them a 87% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 43.3 combined points, with Stanford at 11.7 and Miami at 31.6. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Miami favored by 24.5 points, a 4.4-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Stanford's margin lands between -42.5 and +2.4 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. Injury watch: Niki Prongos (Out). ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Stanford +20.1 / Miami -20.1 Moneyline: Stanford +657 / Miami -657 Win probability: Stanford 13.2% / Miami 86.8% Projected total: 43.3 points Last recalculated: August 31, 2026 at 12:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Stanford: 1455.3, Miami: 1781.4 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Stanford Miami ----------------- -------- ----- elevation +0.0 +0.0 market_blend -71.1 -- injury_hazard -3.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +0.0 +0.0 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +8.1 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Stanford +24.5 / Miami -24.5 Consensus moneyline: Stanford +1600 / Miami -4000 Market no-vig win probability: Stanford 5.7% / Miami 94.3% Spread range across books: +23.5 to +24.5 (7 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T18:20:03.159482+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Stanford EV% Miami EV% ----------- -------- ------- ----- ------ betmgm +1300 +84.9% -3000 -10.3% betonlineag +1256 +79.1% -3000 -10.3% betrivers +1150 +65.1% -3335 -10.6% betus +1300 +84.9% -3000 -10.3% bovada +1200 +71.7% -4000 -11.0% draftkings +1600 +124.6% -4000 -11.0% fanduel +1400 +98.2% -4000 -11.0% lowvig +1256 +79.1% -3000 -10.3% mybookieag +1131 +62.6% -5049 -11.5% Spread: Book Stanford Miami ----------- ------------ ------------ betmgm +24.0 (-108) -24.0 (-110) betonlineag +24.5 (-114) -24.5 (-106) betrivers +24.0 (-113) -24.0 (-110) betus +24.5 (-115) -24.5 (-105) bovada +24.5 (-115) -24.5 (-105) draftkings +24.5 (-118) -24.5 (-102) fanduel +23.5 (-106) -23.5 (-114) lowvig +24.5 (-110) -24.5 (-102) mybookieag +23.5 (-110) -23.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Stanford +22.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now +24.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 PM UTC), 195 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Miami 31.6 -- Stanford 11.7 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------- ----- ----- ----- ---- ---- Stanford margin -42.5 -31.6 -20.0 -7.8 +2.4 Total points 22.2 32.4 43.2 54.5 64.8 Probability Stanford covers the market spread: 60.7% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: STANFORD Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Micah Ford RB Rushing yards 51.3 10-98 Carries 13.2 8-21 Rushing TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Receiving yards 16.6 -- Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Caden High WR Receiving yards 43.1 8-86 Receptions 3.7 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.08 8% 1+ Sedrick Irvin RB Rushing yards 22.5 -- Carries 7.6 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.07 7% 1+ Receiving yards 8.1 -- Receptions 1.5 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Benji Blackburn TE Receiving yards 22.1 -- Receptions 2.3 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.10 9% 1+ Marcus Brown WR Receiving yards 21.3 -- Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.11 11% 1+ Jordan Onovughe WR Receiving yards 12.7 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Matt Rose LB Tackles 8.8 6-11 Jahsiah Galvan LB Tackles 6.4 4-9 Ernest Cooper LB Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Gabe Kaminski LB Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ MIAMI Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Darian Mensah QB Passing yards 313.2 229-416 Pass attempts 34.6 26-43 Completions 22.3 16-28 Passing TDs 2.63 93% 1+, 74% 2+ Rushing yards 8.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Cooper Barkate WR Receiving yards 76.7 41-138 Receptions 4.9 3-9 Receiving TDs 0.38 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Malachi Toney WR Rushing yards 16.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 71.9 36-138 Receptions 5.5 4-10 Receiving TDs 0.89 59% 1+, 22% 2+ Vandrevius Jacobs WR Receiving yards 69.5 34-138 Receptions 4.0 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.44 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Mark Fletcher Jr. RB Rushing yards 65.9 25-116 Carries 13.5 8-20 Rushing TDs 0.71 51% 1+, 16% 2+ Receiving yards 16.9 -- Receptions 2.5 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Girard Pringle Jr. RB Rushing yards 46.7 6-87 Carries 9.6 4-16 Rushing TDs 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Elija Lofton TE Receiving yards 16.8 -- Receptions 1.7 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Omar Thornton DB Tackles 7.0 5-10 Mohamed Toure LB Tackles 5.6 2-9 Damon Wilson II DL Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Ahmad Moten Sr. DL Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Stanford recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Miami recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 STAN 7 MIA 42 MIA Injury/hazard flags: Player Pos Team Status ------------ --- ---- ------ Niki Prongos OL STAN Out ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10120