North Texas at Indiana NCAA, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 5, 2026 at 4:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Indiana by 22.0 points, giving them a 89% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 59.8 combined points, with Indiana at 41.0 and North Texas at 18.8. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Indiana favored by 40.5 points, a 18.5-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Indiana's margin lands between -0.2 and +44.5 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Indiana -22.0 / North Texas +22.0 Moneyline: Indiana -782 / North Texas +782 Win probability: Indiana 88.7% / North Texas 11.3% Projected total: 59.8 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Indiana: 1856.5, North Texas: 1604.6 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Indiana North Texas ----------------- ------- ----------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 -1.3 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +20.0 -- consecutive_road -- -15.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Indiana -40.5 / North Texas +40.5 Spread range across books: -41.5 to -40.5 (9 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:03.782596+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Indiana EV% North Texas EV% ---------- ------- ------ ----------- ------ mybookieag -100000 -11.3% +1550 +87.1% Spread: Book Indiana North Texas ----------- ------------ ------------ betmgm -41.5 (-108) +41.5 (-110) betonlineag -40.5 (-110) +40.5 (-110) betrivers -41.5 (-109) +41.5 (-114) betus -40.5 (-110) +40.5 (-110) bovada -41.0 (-105) +41.0 (-115) draftkings -40.5 (-112) +40.5 (-108) fanduel -40.5 (-110) +40.5 (-110) lowvig -40.5 (-106) +40.5 (-106) mybookieag -41.0 (-110) +41.0 (-110) Line movement: opened Indiana -40.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -40.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 194 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: North Texas 18.8 -- Indiana 41.0 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------- ---- ----- ----- ----- ----- Indiana margin -0.2 +10.4 +22.4 +34.0 +44.5 Total points 38.6 48.5 59.6 70.9 81.3 Probability Indiana covers the market spread: 14.7% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: INDIANA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Josh Hoover QB Passing yards 211.4 127-262 Pass attempts 32.9 24-44 Completions 21.3 15-28 Passing TDs 2.00 86% 1+, 59% 2+ Rushing yards 3.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Turbo Richard RB Rushing yards 70.6 30-142 Carries 12.0 6-17 Rushing TDs 0.65 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Receiving yards 14.7 -- Receptions 2.7 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Charlie Becker WR Receiving yards 58.9 23-100 Receptions 3.6 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Shazz Preston WR Receiving yards 53.2 18-94 Receptions 3.6 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Khobie Martin RB Rushing yards 50.1 9-79 Carries 8.6 3-12 Rushing TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Nick Marsh WR Rushing yards 10.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 49.5 14-79 Receptions 4.7 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Rolijah Hardy LB Tackles 7.2 4-10 Joe Hjelle DL Tackles 4.3 3-6 Tobi Osunsanmi DL Sacks 0.60 45% 1+, 12% 2+ Stephen Daley DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ NORTH TEXAS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Tayven Jackson QB Passing yards 158.5 74-220 Pass attempts 29.7 21-35 Completions 18.3 12-24 Passing TDs 0.57 44% 1+, 11% 2+ Rushing yards 4.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Corri Milliner WR Receiving yards 51.4 16-84 Receptions 4.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Dalton Carnes WR Receiving yards 26.1 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Aaron Alexander LB Tackles 8.0 5-12 Brec Long TE Receiving yards 7.6 -- Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ David Onuoha DL Tackles 4.2 3-7 Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ Udoka Ezeani DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Indiana recent form: 5-0 over last 5 games North Texas recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10121