Miami (OH) at Pittsburgh NCAA, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 5, 2026 at 4:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Pittsburgh by 10.0 points, giving them a 72% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 50.6 combined points, with Pittsburgh at 30.6 and Miami (OH) at 20.4. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Pittsburgh favored by 16.5 points, a 6.5-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Pittsburgh's margin lands between -12.0 and +32.3 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Pittsburgh -10.0 / Miami (OH) +10.0 Moneyline: Pittsburgh -254 / Miami (OH) +254 Win probability: Pittsburgh 71.8% / Miami (OH) 28.2% Projected total: 50.6 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Pittsburgh: 1547.9, Miami (OH): 1486.8 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Pittsburgh Miami (OH) ----------------- ---------- ---------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +2.9 -2.4 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +15.5 -- consecutive_road -- -15.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Pittsburgh -16.5 / Miami (OH) +16.5 Consensus moneyline: Pittsburgh -850 / Miami (OH) +575 Market no-vig win probability: Pittsburgh 85.8% / Miami (OH) 14.2% Spread range across books: -16.5 to -16.0 (9 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:03.792082+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Pittsburgh EV% Miami (OH) EV% ----------- ---------- ------ ---------- ------ betmgm -750 -18.7% +550 +83.6% betonlineag -800 -19.3% +561 +86.7% betrivers -1000 -21.1% +600 +97.7% betus -800 -19.3% +550 +83.6% bovada -900 -20.3% +575 +90.6% draftkings -850 -19.8% +575 +90.6% fanduel -820 -19.5% +550 +83.6% lowvig -800 -19.3% +561 +86.7% mybookieag -901 -20.3% +530 +77.9% Spread: Book Pittsburgh Miami (OH) ----------- ------------ ------------ betmgm -16.5 (-110) +16.5 (-108) betonlineag -16.5 (-110) +16.5 (-110) betrivers -16.5 (-113) +16.5 (-110) betus -16.5 (-110) +16.5 (-110) bovada -16.0 (-110) +16.0 (-110) draftkings -16.5 (-108) +16.5 (-112) fanduel -16.5 (-110) +16.5 (-110) lowvig -16.5 (-106) +16.5 (-106) mybookieag -16.5 (-110) +16.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Pittsburgh -15.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -16.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 194 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Miami (OH) 20.4 -- Pittsburgh 30.6 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------- ----- ---- ----- ----- ----- Pittsburgh margin -12.0 -1.4 +10.1 +21.7 +32.3 Total points 29.5 39.7 51.1 62.1 72.1 Probability Pittsburgh covers the market spread: 35.3% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: PITTSBURGH Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Mason Heintschel QB Passing yards 232.9 149-336 Pass attempts 32.6 24-41 Completions 20.3 14-25 Passing TDs 1.74 82% 1+, 52% 2+ Rushing yards 13.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Ja'Kyrian Turner RB Rushing yards 53.8 13-109 Carries 12.5 7-19 Rushing TDs 0.51 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Receiving yards 17.3 -- Receptions 3.0 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Cataurus Hicks WR Rushing yards 3.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 50.0 14-100 Receptions 2.8 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.32 27% 1+ La'Vell Wright RB Rushing yards 40.8 -- Carries 9.0 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.51 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Receiving yards 11.9 -- Receptions 1.6 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Censere Lee WR Receiving yards 40.2 5-66 Receptions 2.3 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Bryce Yates WR Receiving yards 33.0 -- Receptions 1.9 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Elijah Lagg TE Receiving yards 12.5 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Braylan Lovelace LB Tackles 6.1 3-9 Cruce Brookins DB Tackles 5.4 3-10 Jimmy Scott DL Sacks 0.57 44% 1+, 11% 2+ Isaiah Neal DL Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ MIAMI (OH) Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Thomas Gotkowski QB Passing yards 176.3 92-258 Pass attempts 23.7 15-27 Completions 12.8 6-17 Passing TDs 1.21 70% 1+, 34% 2+ Rushing yards 25.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Christian Ross TE Receiving yards 35.6 12-64 Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Lazaro Rogers RB Rushing yards 31.1 -- Carries 8.3 2-13 Rushing TDs 0.11 10% 1+ D'Shawntae Jones RB Rushing yards 28.3 -- Carries 7.3 2-9 Rushing TDs 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Braylon Isom WR Receiving yards 25.7 -- Receptions 1.9 -- Receiving TDs 0.67 49% 1+, 14% 2+ Keith Reynolds WR Rushing yards 21.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 22.0 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Lynel Billups-Williams WR Receiving yards 21.6 -- Receptions 2.3 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ CJ Young LB Tackles 7.9 5-12 Blayne Myrick LB Tackles 7.9 5-11 Bai Jobe DL Sacks 0.58 44% 1+, 12% 2+ James Schott DL Sacks 0.42 34% 1+, 7% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Pittsburgh recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Miami (OH) recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10122