Ohio at Nebraska NCAA, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 5, 2026 at 4:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Ohio by 3.2 points, giving them a 57% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 45.3 combined points, with Nebraska at 21.1 and Ohio at 24.3. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Nebraska favored by 23.5 points, a 26.7-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Nebraska's margin lands between -25.4 and +19.1 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. Injury watch: Joseph Watson (Questionable). ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Nebraska +3.2 / Ohio -3.2 Moneyline: Nebraska +135 / Ohio -135 Win probability: Nebraska 42.5% / Ohio 57.5% Projected total: 45.3 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Nebraska: 1494.0, Ohio: 1606.5 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Nebraska Ohio ----------------- -------- ---- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +1.6 +1.7 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +15.2 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Nebraska -23.5 / Ohio +23.5 Consensus moneyline: Nebraska -1800 / Ohio +1000 Market no-vig win probability: Nebraska 91.2% / Ohio 8.8% Spread range across books: -24.5 to -23.5 (9 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:03.796196+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Nebraska EV% Ohio EV% ----------- -------- ------ ----- ------- betmgm -3000 -56.1% +1300 +704.7% betonlineag -2800 -56.0% +1216 +656.4% betrivers -5000 -56.6% +1400 +762.2% betus -2800 -56.0% +1250 +676.0% bovada -5000 -56.6% +1300 +704.7% draftkings -1800 -55.1% +1000 +532.3% fanduel -4000 -56.4% +1400 +762.2% lowvig -2800 -56.0% +1216 +656.4% mybookieag -3366 -56.2% +1067 +570.8% Spread: Book Nebraska Ohio ----------- ------------ ------------ betmgm -24.5 (-108) +24.5 (-110) betonlineag -23.5 (-115) +23.5 (-105) betrivers -23.5 (-117) +23.5 (-107) betus -23.5 (-115) +23.5 (-105) bovada -24.0 (-110) +24.0 (-110) draftkings -23.5 (-115) +23.5 (-105) fanduel -23.5 (-115) +23.5 (-105) lowvig -23.5 (-111) +23.5 (-101) mybookieag -24.0 (-110) +24.0 (-110) Line movement: opened Nebraska -23.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -23.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 194 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Ohio 24.3 -- Nebraska 21.1 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- Nebraska margin -25.4 -14.8 -3.1 +8.3 +19.1 Total points 23.7 34.0 45.1 56.6 67.0 Probability Nebraska covers the market spread: 6.2% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: NEBRASKA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Anthony Colandrea QB Passing yards 234.5 150-294 Pass attempts 31.3 22-41 Completions 20.0 14-27 Passing TDs 1.65 81% 1+, 49% 2+ Rushing yards 37.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.89 59% 1+, 22% 2+ Nyziah Hunter WR Receiving yards 54.3 19-99 Receptions 3.8 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.51 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Kwazi Gilmer WR Receiving yards 44.1 8-75 Receptions 3.9 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.38 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Quinn Clark WR Receiving yards 34.1 -- Receptions 1.2 1-1 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Mekhi Nelson RB Rushing yards 33.9 -- Carries 7.0 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.17 15% 1+ Receiving yards 21.7 2-52 Receptions 2.7 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Isaiah Mozee RB Rushing yards 23.8 -- Carries 5.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 21.9 2-51 Receptions 2.7 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Luke Lindenmeyer TE Receiving yards 17.7 -- Receptions 2.8 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Dexter Foster LB Tackles 7.2 4-10 Owen Chambliss LB Tackles 6.1 3-10 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Jahsear Whittington DT Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ OHIO Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Duncan Brune RB Rushing yards 58.2 17-108 Carries 10.2 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.77 54% 1+, 18% 2+ Receiving yards 14.7 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Victor Rosa RB Rushing yards 16.2 -- Carries 3.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 25.9 6-59 Receptions 2.8 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Eian Pugh WR Receiving yards 18.4 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Dom Dorwart WR Receiving yards 12.2 -- Receptions 2.3 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Michael Molnar LB Tackles 7.1 4-10 Charlie Christopher LB Tackles 6.9 4-10 Derek Reagans DT Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Joseph Marsh DE Sacks 0.29 25% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Nebraska recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Ohio recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Injury/hazard flags: Player Pos Team Status ------------- --- ---- ------------ Joseph Watson OL OHIO Questionable ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10123