Coastal Carolina at West Virginia NCAA, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 5, 2026 at 4:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors West Virginia by 3.5 points, giving them a 58% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 65.3 combined points, with West Virginia at 34.2 and Coastal Carolina at 30.9. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: West Virginia favored by 21.5 points, a 18.0-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, West Virginia's margin lands between -18.8 and +25.9 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: West Virginia -3.5 / Coastal Carolina +3.5 Moneyline: West Virginia -138 / Coastal Carolina +138 Win probability: West Virginia 58.0% / Coastal Carolina 42.0% Projected total: 65.3 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- West Virginia: 1438.6, Coastal Carolina: 1431.5 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor West Virginia Coastal Carolina ----------------- ------------- ---------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +1.4 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +1.4 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: West Virginia -21.5 / Coastal Carolina +21.5 Consensus moneyline: West Virginia -1650 / Coastal Carolina +950 Market no-vig win probability: West Virginia 90.8% / Coastal Carolina 9.2% Spread range across books: -21.5 to -21.5 (9 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:03.774491+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book West Virginia EV% Coastal Carolina EV% ----------- ------------- ------ ---------------- ------- betmgm -1600 -38.4% +1050 +383.0% betonlineag -2100 -39.2% +1069 +391.0% betrivers -2000 -39.1% +950 +341.0% betus -2100 -39.2% +1075 +393.5% bovada -2200 -39.4% +1000 +362.0% draftkings -1650 -38.5% +950 +341.0% fanduel -2100 -39.2% +1000 +362.0% lowvig -2100 -39.2% +1069 +391.0% mybookieag -2019 -39.1% +859 +302.8% Spread: Book West Virginia Coastal Carolina ----------- ------------- ---------------- betmgm -21.5 (-110) +21.5 (-108) betonlineag -21.5 (-112) +21.5 (-108) betrivers -21.5 (-112) +21.5 (-112) betus -21.5 (-110) +21.5 (-110) bovada -21.5 (-105) +21.5 (-115) draftkings -21.5 (-108) +21.5 (-112) fanduel -21.5 (-110) +21.5 (-110) lowvig -21.5 (-108) +21.5 (-104) mybookieag -21.5 (-110) +21.5 (-110) Line movement: opened West Virginia -17.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -21.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 194 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Coastal Carolina 30.9 -- West Virginia 34.2 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- West Virginia margin -18.8 -8.5 +3.2 +15.2 +25.9 Total points 43.9 54.0 65.1 76.4 86.5 Probability West Virginia covers the market spread: 14.9% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: WEST VIRGINIA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Scotty Fox Jr. QB Passing yards 190.9 107-322 Pass attempts 24.8 16-39 Completions 15.1 9-25 Passing TDs 0.98 63% 1+, 26% 2+ Rushing yards 22.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.28 25% 1+ Cam Cook RB Rushing yards 102.5 61-151 Carries 17.1 12-22 Rushing TDs 1.33 74% 1+, 38% 2+ Receiving yards 24.3 5-44 Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ DJ Epps WR Receiving yards 57.3 22-120 Receptions 4.2 2-8 Receiving TDs 0.76 53% 1+, 18% 2+ John Neider WR Receiving yards 50.5 15-76 Receptions 2.9 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.38 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Josh Sapp TE Receiving yards 17.3 -- Receptions 1.6 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ryan Ward TE Receiving yards 12.7 -- Receptions 1.7 -- Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Tyler Stolsky LB Tackles 8.3 6-13 Kamari Wilson S Tackles 7.0 4-9 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Zeke Durham-Campbell DL Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ COASTAL CAROLINA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Daelen Alexander RB Rushing yards 53.5 12-101 Carries 9.8 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Tristian Gardner WR Receiving yards 47.6 12-79 Receptions 2.9 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.81 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Clayton Coppock Jr. WR Rushing yards 16.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Receiving yards 45.2 10-78 Receptions 3.4 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.81 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Jevon Edwards RB Rushing yards 44.5 3-71 Carries 7.6 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Receiving yards 11.5 -- Receptions 1.8 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Karmello English WR Receiving yards 33.0 -- Receptions 2.7 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.49 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Zach Courtney TE Receiving yards 29.5 6-52 Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ja'Marion Wayne CB Tackles 5.2 4-8 Se'Von McDowell LB Tackles 5.2 2-8 DJ Wesolak DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Dezmond Barnes DL Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ West Virginia recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Coastal Carolina recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10124