Oregon State at Houston NCAA, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 5, 2026 at 4:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Houston by 22.8 points, giving them a 89% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 47.2 combined points, with Houston at 34.9 and Oregon State at 12.3. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Houston favored by 20.5 points, a 2.3-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Houston's margin lands between +0.5 and +44.9 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Houston -22.8 / Oregon State +22.8 Moneyline: Houston -841 / Oregon State +841 Win probability: Houston 89.4% / Oregon State 10.6% Projected total: 47.2 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Houston: 1542.6, Oregon State: 1280.6 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Houston Oregon State ----------------- ------- ------------ elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 -1.0 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +2.9 -- consecutive_road -- -15.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Houston -20.5 / Oregon State +20.5 Consensus moneyline: Houston -1800 / Oregon State +1000 Market no-vig win probability: Houston 91.2% / Oregon State 8.8% Spread range across books: -21.0 to -20.5 (9 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:03.778506+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Houston EV% Oregon State EV% ----------- ------- ----- ------------ ------ betmgm -1400 -4.2% +900 +6.3% betonlineag -1600 -5.0% +910 +7.4% betrivers -2000 -6.2% +950 +11.6% betus -1600 -5.0% +900 +6.3% bovada -1900 -5.9% +900 +6.3% draftkings -1800 -5.7% +1000 +16.9% fanduel -2100 -6.4% +1000 +16.9% lowvig -1600 -5.0% +910 +7.4% mybookieag -1493 -4.6% +720 -12.8% Spread: Book Houston Oregon State ----------- ------------ ------------ betmgm -20.5 (-108) +20.5 (-110) betonlineag -20.5 (-110) +20.5 (-110) betrivers -20.5 (-114) +20.5 (-109) betus -20.5 (-110) +20.5 (-110) bovada -21.0 (-105) +21.0 (-115) draftkings -20.5 (-115) +20.5 (-105) fanduel -20.5 (-118) +20.5 (-104) lowvig -20.5 (-106) +20.5 (-106) mybookieag -20.5 (-110) +20.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Houston -18.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -20.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 194 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Oregon State 12.3 -- Houston 34.9 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------- ---- ----- ----- ----- ----- Houston margin +0.5 +10.7 +22.4 +34.3 +44.9 Total points 26.2 36.0 47.2 58.3 68.8 Probability Houston covers the market spread: 54.3% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: HOUSTON Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Conner Weigman QB Passing yards 246.3 162-313 Pass attempts 29.7 21-35 Completions 19.8 14-25 Passing TDs 2.86 94% 1+, 78% 2+ Rushing yards 59.7 19-126 Rushing TDs 1.05 65% 1+, 28% 2+ Amare Thomas WR Rushing yards 6.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 79.9 44-125 Receptions 5.4 4-8 Receiving TDs 1.67 81% 1+, 50% 2+ Trent Walker WR Receiving yards 68.2 33-136 Receptions 5.1 3-9 Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Patrick Overmyer TE Receiving yards 48.6 25-85 Receptions 2.8 2-5 Receiving TDs 1.04 64% 1+, 28% 2+ Koby Young WR Receiving yards 39.7 4-60 Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Makhi Hughes RB Rushing yards 38.2 -- Carries 9.5 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ DJ Butler RB Rushing yards 37.3 -- Carries 9.0 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 10.8 -- Receptions 2.0 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kentrell Webb DB Tackles 5.4 3-9 Miller Malone LB Tackles 4.8 2-9 Brandon Mack II LB Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Carmycah Glass LB Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ OREGON STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Maalik Murphy QB Passing yards 226.8 142-392 Pass attempts 29.3 20-47 Completions 17.4 11-30 Passing TDs 1.08 66% 1+, 29% 2+ Rushing yards -1.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Cornell Hatcher Jr. RB Rushing yards 40.5 -- Carries 8.7 3-14 Rushing TDs 0.24 22% 1+ Receiving yards 14.0 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.24 22% 1+ Gabe Milbourn TE Receiving yards 32.4 8-60 Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Eddie Freauff WR Receiving yards 30.1 -- Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ DeCorion Temple TE Receiving yards 25.1 1-36 Receptions 2.5 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.31 27% 1+ AJ Newberry RB Rushing yards 18.2 -- Carries 3.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.24 22% 1+ Malachi Durant WR Receiving yards 13.4 -- Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.23 21% 1+ Aiden Sullivan LB Tackles 7.1 4-11 Takari Hickle LB Tackles 4.2 2-7 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Jacob Schuster DT Sacks 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Houston recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Oregon State recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------- ------ 2025 HOU 27 ORST 24 HOU ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10125