East Carolina at Alabama NCAA, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 5, 2026 at 4:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Alabama by 11.1 points, giving them a 74% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 50.7 combined points, with Alabama at 31.0 and East Carolina at 19.9. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Alabama favored by 28.5 points, a 17.4-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Alabama's margin lands between -10.9 and +33.0 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Alabama -11.1 / East Carolina +11.1 Moneyline: Alabama -282 / East Carolina +282 Win probability: Alabama 73.9% / East Carolina 26.2% Projected total: 50.7 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Alabama: 1683.7, East Carolina: 1568.9 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Alabama East Carolina ----------------- ------- ------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +2.8 +2.2 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +20.0 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Alabama -28.5 / East Carolina +28.5 Consensus moneyline: Alabama -10000 / East Carolina +3000 Market no-vig win probability: Alabama 96.8% / East Carolina 3.2% Spread range across books: -29.5 to -28.5 (9 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:03.771448+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Alabama EV% East Carolina EV% ---------- ------- ------ ------------- ------- betmgm -10000 -25.4% +2000 +449.1% betrivers -10000 -25.4% +1900 +423.0% bovada -10000 -25.4% +1600 +344.5% draftkings -10000 -25.4% +3000 +710.6% fanduel -8000 -25.2% +2200 +501.4% mybookieag -5000 -24.7% +1200 +239.9% Spread: Book Alabama East Carolina ----------- ------------ ------------- betmgm -29.0 (-110) +29.0 (-108) betonlineag -29.5 (-110) +29.5 (-110) betrivers -28.5 (-110) +28.5 (-113) betus -29.5 (-110) +29.5 (-110) bovada -28.5 (-110) +28.5 (-110) draftkings -28.5 (-108) +28.5 (-112) fanduel -28.5 (-110) +28.5 (-110) lowvig -29.5 (-106) +29.5 (-106) mybookieag -28.5 (-110) +28.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Alabama -26.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -28.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 194 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: East Carolina 19.9 -- Alabama 31.0 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------- ----- ---- ----- ----- ----- Alabama margin -10.9 -0.4 +11.2 +22.5 +33.0 Total points 29.7 39.4 50.8 62.2 72.8 Probability Alabama covers the market spread: 15.2% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: ALABAMA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Austin Mack QB Passing yards 138.3 54-204 Pass attempts 20.1 12-29 Completions 13.1 7-20 Passing TDs 0.64 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Ryan Coleman-Williams WR Receiving yards 47.0 11-76 Receptions 4.0 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ AK Dear RB Rushing yards 43.6 2-82 Carries 7.1 2-9 Rushing TDs 0.24 22% 1+ Lotzeir Brooks WR Rushing yards 4.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 38.0 2-64 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Noah Rogers WR Receiving yards 35.6 -- Receptions 3.3 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.10 9% 1+ Daniel Hill RB Rushing yards 33.3 -- Carries 9.3 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.46 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Receiving yards 19.8 0-45 Receptions 3.0 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.09 9% 1+ Josh Ford TE Receiving yards 30.5 7-46 Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Kaleb Edwards TE Receiving yards 28.6 5-46 Receptions 2.0 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.16 14% 1+ Caleb Woodson LB Tackles 6.3 4-9 Bray Hubbard DB Tackles 5.6 4-8 Yhonzae Pierre LB Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Devan Thompkins DL Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ EAST CAROLINA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Mitch Griffis QB Passing yards 132.7 48-218 Pass attempts 18.5 10-27 Completions 12.2 6-19 Passing TDs 0.24 22% 1+ Rushing yards 8.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.24 22% 1+ Michael Allen RB Rushing yards 39.5 -- Carries 10.9 6-19 Rushing TDs 0.48 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Receiving yards 17.7 -- Receptions 2.8 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.17 15% 1+ Ashton Gray RB Rushing yards 38.0 -- Carries 8.9 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.52 41% 1+, 10% 2+ Landon Sides WR Receiving yards 33.7 -- Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Brock Spalding WR Receiving yards 29.6 -- Receptions 2.9 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Kanen Hamlett TE Receiving yards 21.0 -- Receptions 2.7 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Tyler Johnson WR Receiving yards 10.8 -- Receptions 1.2 1-1 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Zyeir Gamble DB Tackles 6.7 4-10 DJ Johnson Jr. LB Tackles 5.6 2-8 Kendrick DuJour DL Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Rion Roseborough DL Sacks 0.42 34% 1+, 7% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Alabama recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games East Carolina recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10126