Liberty at James Madison NCAA, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 5, 2026 at 4:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors James Madison by 21.8 points, giving them a 89% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 71.4 combined points, with James Madison at 46.4 and Liberty at 24.6. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: James Madison favored by 6.5 points, a 15.3-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, James Madison's margin lands between -0.3 and +43.9 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: James Madison -21.8 / Liberty +21.8 Moneyline: James Madison -771 / Liberty +771 Win probability: James Madison 88.5% / Liberty 11.5% Projected total: 71.4 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- James Madison: 1693.8, Liberty: 1410.8 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor James Madison Liberty ----------------- ------------- ------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue -2.9 +3.8 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +13.5 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: James Madison -6.5 / Liberty +6.5 Consensus moneyline: James Madison -245 / Liberty +200 Market no-vig win probability: James Madison 68.1% / Liberty 31.9% Spread range across books: -6.5 to -6.5 (9 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:03.785412+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book James Madison EV% Liberty EV% ----------- ------------- ------ ------- ------ betmgm -235 +26.2% +200 -65.6% betonlineag -245 +24.7% +203 -65.2% betrivers -250 +23.9% +200 -65.6% betus -245 +24.7% +205 -65.0% bovada -250 +23.9% +210 -64.4% draftkings -245 +24.7% +200 -65.6% fanduel -260 +22.6% +210 -64.4% lowvig -245 +24.7% +203 -65.2% mybookieag -265 +21.9% +200 -65.6% Spread: Book James Madison Liberty ----------- ------------- ----------- betmgm -6.5 (-110) +6.5 (-108) betonlineag -6.5 (-115) +6.5 (-105) betrivers -6.5 (-112) +6.5 (-112) betus -6.5 (-115) +6.5 (-105) bovada -6.5 (-115) +6.5 (-105) draftkings -6.5 (-110) +6.5 (-110) fanduel -6.5 (-110) +6.5 (-110) lowvig -6.5 (-111) +6.5 (-101) mybookieag -6.5 (-110) +6.5 (-110) Line movement: opened James Madison -6.0 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -6.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 194 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Liberty 24.6 -- James Madison 46.4 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------------- ---- ----- ----- ----- ----- James Madison margin -0.3 +10.2 +22.0 +33.1 +43.9 Total points 49.5 59.8 70.9 82.2 92.6 Probability James Madison covers the market spread: 81.4% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: JAMES MADISON Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Arrington Maiden QB Passing yards 59.9 -- Pass attempts 8.4 -- Completions 5.3 -- Passing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Rushing yards 17.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.18 17% 1+ Braeden Wisloski WR Receiving yards 38.0 2-62 Receptions 2.7 0-5 Receiving TDs 0.61 45% 1+, 12% 2+ Michael Scott WR Receiving yards 28.9 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ George Pettaway RB Rushing yards 22.7 -- Carries 5.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 18.9 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Za'Ron Collins WR Receiving yards 15.8 -- Receptions 1.5 -- Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Nakian Jackson LB Tackles 5.8 3-11 Gannon Weathersby LB Tackles 4.8 2-9 DJ Kelly CB Sacks 0.20 18% 1+ Javis Mynatt S Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ LIBERTY Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Ethan Vasko QB Passing yards 163.8 80-224 Pass attempts 26.9 18-36 Completions 15.5 10-22 Passing TDs 0.60 45% 1+, 12% 2+ Rushing yards 20.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.48 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Kanye Udoh RB Rushing yards 35.4 -- Carries 9.6 4-17 Rushing TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Terron Kellman RB Rushing yards 34.6 -- Carries 8.8 3-12 Rushing TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Receiving yards 15.3 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jamari Person WR Receiving yards 32.6 -- Receptions 2.8 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Caleb Ryan TE Receiving yards 20.9 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Derrell Farrar LB Tackles 6.8 4-10 Jeremiah Vessel S Tackles 5.4 3-9 Joe Strickland DL Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Nathan Pirolli DL Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ James Madison recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Liberty recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 JMU 31 LIB 13 JMU ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10127