Ball State at Ohio State NCAA, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 5, 2026 at 4:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Ohio State by 36.2 points, giving them a 97% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 40.0 combined points, with Ohio State at 38.2 and Ball State at 1.9. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Ohio State favored by 50.5 points, a 14.3-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Ohio State's margin lands between +13.7 and +58.9 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Ohio State -36.2 / Ball State +36.2 Moneyline: Ohio State -2958 / Ball State +2958 Win probability: Ohio State 96.7% / Ball State 3.3% Projected total: 40.0 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Ohio State: 1791.7, Ball State: 1311.7 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Ohio State Ball State ----------------- ---------- ---------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +3.7 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +8.1 -- consecutive_road -- -15.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Ohio State -50.5 / Ball State +50.5 Spread range across books: -51.0 to -49.5 (9 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:03.801615+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Ohio State EV% Ball State EV% ---------- ---------- ----- ---------- ------ mybookieag -100000 -3.2% +1575 -45.2% Spread: Book Ohio State Ball State ----------- ------------ ------------ betmgm -50.5 (-108) +50.5 (-110) betonlineag -49.5 (-110) +49.5 (-110) betrivers -50.0 (-109) +50.0 (-114) betus -49.5 (-110) +49.5 (-110) bovada -51.0 (-105) +51.0 (-115) draftkings -50.5 (-108) +50.5 (-112) fanduel -50.5 (-110) +50.5 (-110) lowvig -49.5 (-106) +49.5 (-106) mybookieag -50.5 (-110) +50.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Ohio State -50.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -50.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 194 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Ball State 1.9 -- Ohio State 38.2 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- Ohio State margin +13.7 +24.5 +36.6 +48.0 +58.9 Total points 18.7 28.5 40.3 51.5 61.5 Probability Ohio State covers the market spread: 20.8% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: OHIO STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Julian Sayin QB Passing yards 273.2 189-361 Pass attempts 29.7 21-37 Completions 21.2 15-28 Passing TDs 2.56 92% 1+, 72% 2+ Rushing yards 1.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jeremiah Smith WR Rushing yards 17.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.55 42% 1+, 11% 2+ Receiving yards 86.4 51-145 Receptions 5.5 4-8 Receiving TDs 1.24 71% 1+, 35% 2+ Bo Jackson RB Rushing yards 85.2 44-126 Carries 13.3 8-18 Rushing TDs 0.61 46% 1+, 12% 2+ Receiving yards 26.9 8-52 Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Devin McCuin WR Receiving yards 65.8 30-105 Receptions 4.9 3-7 Receiving TDs 1.24 71% 1+, 35% 2+ Isaiah West RB Rushing yards 51.9 11-84 Carries 8.1 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Kyle Parker WR Receiving yards 41.3 6-70 Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Hunter Welcing TE Receiving yards 22.5 -- Receptions 2.9 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Mason Williams TE Receiving yards 17.1 -- Receptions 2.0 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Earl Little Jr. S Tackles 6.0 4-7 Christian Alliegro LB Tackles 5.0 2-9 Kenyatta Jackson Jr. DE Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Eddrick Houston DT Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ BALL STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jalen Bonds RB Rushing yards 34.4 -- Carries 10.8 5-18 Rushing TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Donovan Hamilton WR Receiving yards 27.5 -- Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ TJ Horton RB Rushing yards 21.8 -- Carries 8.2 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 10.0 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.09 8% 1+ Jabari Smith Jr. WR Receiving yards 17.6 -- Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Elisha Durham WR Receiving yards 10.6 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Willizhuan Yates DB Tackles 4.2 2-6 Derek Fields DB Tackles 4.1 2-6 Ameir Glenn DT Sacks 0.14 13% 1+ Ben Marsh DE Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Ohio State recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Ball State recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10128