Kent State at South Carolina NCAA, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 5, 2026 at 4:45 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors South Carolina by 14.8 points, giving them a 80% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 44.8 combined points, with South Carolina at 29.9 and Kent State at 15.1. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: South Carolina favored by 36.5 points, a 21.7-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, South Carolina's margin lands between -7.1 and +37.1 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: South Carolina -14.8 / Kent State +14.8 Moneyline: South Carolina -398 / Kent State +398 Win probability: South Carolina 79.9% / Kent State 20.1% Projected total: 44.8 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- South Carolina: 1499.0, Kent State: 1335.2 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor South Carolina Kent State ----------------- -------------- ---------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +1.9 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +9.3 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: South Carolina -36.5 / Kent State +36.5 Consensus moneyline: South Carolina -100000 / Kent State +5000 Market no-vig win probability: South Carolina 98.1% / Kent State 1.9% Spread range across books: -36.5 to -36.5 (9 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:03.814503+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book South Carolina EV% Kent State EV% ---------- -------------- ------ ---------- ------- draftkings -100000 -20.0% +5000 +923.1% mybookieag -100000 -20.0% +1525 +226.0% Spread: Book South Carolina Kent State ----------- -------------- ------------ betmgm -36.5 (-110) +36.5 (-108) betonlineag -36.5 (-105) +36.5 (-115) betrivers -36.5 (-112) +36.5 (-112) betus -36.5 (-105) +36.5 (-115) bovada -36.5 (-110) +36.5 (-110) draftkings -36.5 (-108) +36.5 (-112) fanduel -36.5 (-110) +36.5 (-110) lowvig -36.5 (-101) +36.5 (-111) mybookieag -36.5 (-110) +36.5 (-110) Line movement: opened South Carolina -34.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -36.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 194 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Kent State 15.1 -- South Carolina 29.9 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- South Carolina margin -7.1 +3.0 +14.5 +26.5 +37.1 Total points 23.9 33.8 44.9 56.0 66.5 Probability South Carolina covers the market spread: 10.5% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: SOUTH CAROLINA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- LaNorris Sellers QB Passing yards 233.7 149-335 Pass attempts 28.2 20-37 Completions 16.8 10-20 Passing TDs 1.47 77% 1+, 43% 2+ Rushing yards 34.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.65 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Jayden Sellers WR Receiving yards 58.0 22-95 Receptions 4.2 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Nyck Harbor WR Receiving yards 52.8 17-91 Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.84 57% 1+, 21% 2+ Christian Clark RB Rushing yards 43.6 2-82 Carries 9.5 4-17 Rushing TDs 0.28 25% 1+ Receiving yards 21.3 2-35 Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Matt Fuller RB Rushing yards 42.6 2-76 Carries 9.9 4-16 Rushing TDs 0.28 25% 1+ Receiving yards 13.5 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Nitro Tuggle WR Receiving yards 40.3 5-66 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Brady Hunt TE Receiving yards 18.3 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Max Drag TE Receiving yards 12.4 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Justin Okoronkwo LB Tackles 5.8 3-8 Fred Johnson LB Tackles 5.4 2-8 Caleb Herring DE Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Drew Collins DE Sacks 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ KENT STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Dru DeShields QB Passing yards 198.0 114-261 Pass attempts 24.1 16-28 Completions 13.7 8-16 Passing TDs 1.54 78% 1+, 45% 2+ Rushing yards 1.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Da'Realyst Clark WR Rushing yards 4.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 41.8 6-91 Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.24 22% 1+ Wayne Harris WR Receiving yards 38.0 2-64 Receptions 3.5 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.09 9% 1+ Terik Mulder TE Receiving yards 37.9 14-67 Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.64 47% 1+, 13% 2+ Marques Hicks RB Rushing yards 30.5 -- Carries 3.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ardell Banks WR Receiving yards 27.5 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.18 17% 1+ Donovan Delaney Jr. RB Rushing yards 22.2 -- Carries 8.2 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.34 28% 1+ Joel Cordoba DB Tackles 5.9 4-10 Derrick Jackson III DB Tackles 5.2 3-8 Darian Blachewicz DL Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ Jaihien Roy DL Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ South Carolina recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Kent State recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10129