Baylor at Auburn NCAA, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 5, 2026 at 7:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Auburn by 5.4 points, giving them a 62% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 50.8 combined points, with Auburn at 28.0 and Baylor at 22.6. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Auburn favored by 7.0 points, a 1.6-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Auburn's margin lands between -17.0 and +27.6 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Auburn -5.4 / Baylor +5.4 Moneyline: Auburn -166 / Baylor +166 Win probability: Auburn 62.4% / Baylor 37.6% Projected total: 50.8 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Auburn: 1471.7, Baylor: 1455.7 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Auburn Baylor ----------------- ------ ------ elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +1.9 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +4.6 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Auburn -7.0 / Baylor +7.0 Consensus moneyline: Auburn -298 / Baylor +240 Market no-vig win probability: Auburn 71.8% / Baylor 28.2% Spread range across books: -7.5 to -7.0 (9 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:03.820719+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Auburn EV% Baylor EV% ----------- ------ ------ ------ ------ betmgm -275 -15.0% +225 +22.3% betonlineag -285 -15.8% +234 +25.7% betrivers -286 -15.8% +220 +20.4% betus -280 -15.4% +235 +26.1% bovada -280 -15.4% +230 +24.2% draftkings -298 -16.7% +240 +28.0% fanduel -280 -15.4% +225 +22.3% lowvig -285 -15.8% +234 +25.7% mybookieag -290 -16.1% +216 +18.9% Spread: Book Auburn Baylor ----------- ----------- ----------- betmgm -7.5 (-105) +7.5 (-115) betonlineag -7.0 (-115) +7.0 (-105) betrivers -7.0 (-115) +7.0 (-108) betus -7.0 (-110) +7.0 (-110) bovada -7.0 (-110) +7.0 (-110) draftkings -7.0 (-112) +7.0 (-108) fanduel -7.5 (-104) +7.5 (-118) lowvig -7.0 (-111) +7.0 (-101) mybookieag -7.0 (-110) +7.0 (-110) Line movement: opened Auburn -7.0 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -7.0 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 194 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Baylor 22.6 -- Auburn 28.0 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Auburn margin -17.0 -6.3 +5.3 +17.0 +27.6 Total points 29.2 39.1 50.8 61.9 72.5 Probability Auburn covers the market spread: 46.1% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: AUBURN Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Byrum Brown QB Passing yards 249.7 165-298 Pass attempts 28.6 20-38 Completions 19.0 13-24 Passing TDs 2.63 93% 1+, 74% 2+ Rushing yards 85.9 46-117 Rushing TDs 1.44 76% 1+, 42% 2+ Keshaun Singleton WR Receiving yards 75.5 40-120 Receptions 4.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.87 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Jeremiah Cobb RB Rushing yards 72.8 32-125 Carries 12.5 7-21 Rushing TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Receiving yards 21.2 2-37 Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jeremiah Koger WR Receiving yards 65.4 30-105 Receptions 4.1 2-6 Receiving TDs 1.01 64% 1+, 27% 2+ Chas Nimrod WR Receiving yards 65.2 30-115 Receptions 3.8 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.23 21% 1+ Nykahi Davenport RB Rushing yards 64.7 24-107 Carries 10.4 5-15 Rushing TDs 1.06 65% 1+, 29% 2+ Receiving yards 16.1 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jake Johnson TE Receiving yards 30.9 7-54 Receptions 2.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Jonathan Echols TE Receiving yards 21.5 -- Receptions 1.8 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Xavier Atkins LB Tackles 8.1 5-11 Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Fred Gaskin III S Tackles 4.6 2-7 Cody Sigler DL Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ BAYLOR Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- DJ Lagway QB Passing yards 216.8 132-304 Pass attempts 27.6 19-35 Completions 16.8 10-21 Passing TDs 1.30 73% 1+, 37% 2+ Rushing yards 18.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Gavin Freeman WR Rushing yards 11.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 48.8 13-68 Receptions 4.7 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.38 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Caden Knighten RB Rushing yards 37.7 -- Carries 10.6 5-17 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 13.4 -- Receptions 1.7 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Michael Turner RB Rushing yards 37.7 -- Carries 10.6 5-15 Rushing TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Receiving yards 10.9 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Matthew Klopfenstein TE Receiving yards 37.2 13-56 Receptions 2.6 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Tony Livingston TE Receiving yards 30.8 7-50 Receptions 1.7 -- Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Jadon Porter WR Receiving yards 25.3 -- Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Dre'lon Miller WR Rushing yards 23.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Receiving yards 24.0 -- Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Kedrick Walker LB Tackles 6.1 3-10 Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ Jacob Redding S Tackles 5.2 3-7 Ryan Davis LB Sacks 0.67 49% 1+, 14% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Auburn recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Baylor recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 AUB 38 BAY 24 AUB ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10130