Marshall at Penn State NCAA, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 5, 2026 at 7:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Penn State by 15.5 points, giving them a 81% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 60.8 combined points, with Penn State at 38.2 and Marshall at 22.6. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Penn State favored by 24.5 points, a 9.0-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Penn State's margin lands between -6.5 and +37.6 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Penn State -15.5 / Marshall +15.5 Moneyline: Penn State -426 / Marshall +426 Win probability: Penn State 81.0% / Marshall 19.0% Projected total: 60.8 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Penn State: 1669.4, Marshall: 1487.9 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Penn State Marshall ----------------- ---------- -------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +2.5 +3.1 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +5.9 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Penn State -24.5 / Marshall +24.5 Consensus moneyline: Penn State -4000 / Marshall +1600 Market no-vig win probability: Penn State 94.3% / Marshall 5.7% Spread range across books: -24.5 to -24.5 (9 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:03.866012+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Penn State EV% Marshall EV% ----------- ---------- ------ -------- ------- betmgm -3000 -16.3% +1500 +204.2% betonlineag -3000 -16.3% +1256 +157.8% betrivers -3335 -16.6% +1200 +147.1% betus -3000 -16.3% +1300 +166.1% bovada -10000 -18.2% +1600 +223.2% draftkings -4000 -17.0% +1600 +223.2% fanduel -4000 -17.0% +1400 +185.2% lowvig -3000 -16.3% +1256 +157.8% mybookieag -4000 -17.0% +1050 +118.6% Spread: Book Penn State Marshall ----------- ------------ ------------ betmgm -24.5 (-105) +24.5 (-112) betonlineag -24.5 (-105) +24.5 (-115) betrivers -24.5 (-112) +24.5 (-112) betus -24.5 (-110) +24.5 (-110) bovada -24.5 (-105) +24.5 (-115) draftkings -24.5 (-110) +24.5 (-110) fanduel -24.5 (-110) +24.5 (-110) lowvig -24.5 (-101) +24.5 (-111) mybookieag -24.5 (-110) +24.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Penn State -23.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -24.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 194 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Marshall 22.6 -- Penn State 38.2 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Penn State margin -6.5 +4.1 +15.8 +27.4 +37.6 Total points 39.3 49.0 61.0 72.3 82.4 Probability Penn State covers the market spread: 30.6% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: PENN STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Rocco Becht QB Passing yards 252.2 168-355 Pass attempts 29.7 21-41 Completions 17.8 12-26 Passing TDs 1.25 71% 1+, 36% 2+ Rushing yards 15.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.83 57% 1+, 20% 2+ Carson Hansen RB Rushing yards 81.7 41-123 Carries 14.4 9-21 Rushing TDs 0.81 55% 1+, 19% 2+ Receiving yards 19.5 0-31 Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Chase Sowell WR Receiving yards 69.6 34-126 Receptions 3.6 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Brett Eskildsen WR Receiving yards 59.2 24-108 Receptions 3.3 1-6 Receiving TDs 0.65 48% 1+, 14% 2+ James Peoples RB Rushing yards 44.2 3-67 Carries 7.2 2-9 Rushing TDs 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 13.0 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Koby Howard WR Receiving yards 37.8 2-48 Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Benjamin Brahmer TE Receiving yards 32.8 9-49 Receptions 3.0 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.48 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Gabe Burkle TE Receiving yards 24.3 0-35 Receptions 2.9 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kooper Ebel LB Tackles 7.2 4-10 Tony Rojas LB Tackles 6.4 4-10 Caleb Bacon LB Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Vaboue Toure S Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ MARSHALL Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Carlos Del Rio-Wilson QB Passing yards 182.9 99-248 Pass attempts 28.3 20-36 Completions 18.2 12-24 Passing TDs 1.24 71% 1+, 35% 2+ Rushing yards 53.0 13-81 Rushing TDs 0.45 36% 1+, 8% 2+ Adrian Norton WR Receiving yards 47.5 12-100 Receptions 3.9 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.61 46% 1+, 12% 2+ Jo'Shon Barbie RB Rushing yards 42.8 2-81 Carries 9.0 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Receiving yards 12.3 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ De'Andre Tamarez WR Receiving yards 41.9 6-64 Receptions 3.5 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw WR Receiving yards 32.4 -- Receptions 2.4 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Toby Payne TE Receiving yards 30.3 6-61 Receptions 3.3 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.09 8% 1+ Boogie Trotter CB Tackles 6.4 4-10 Javae Gilmore LB Tackles 6.1 3-9 Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ Braydin Ward DL Sacks 0.60 45% 1+, 12% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Penn State recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Marshall recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10131