Boise State at Oregon NCAA, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 5, 2026 at 7:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Oregon by 17.9 points, giving them a 84% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 48.7 combined points, with Oregon at 33.4 and Boise State at 15.4. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Oregon favored by 24.5 points, a 6.6-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Oregon's margin lands between -4.0 and +40.2 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Oregon -17.9 / Boise State +17.9 Moneyline: Oregon -535 / Boise State +535 Win probability: Oregon 84.2% / Boise State 15.8% Projected total: 48.7 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Oregon: 1794.5, Boise State: 1566.1 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Oregon Boise State ----------------- ------ ----------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue -1.7 +3.2 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +2.8 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Oregon -24.5 / Boise State +24.5 Consensus moneyline: Oregon -4500 / Boise State +1700 Market no-vig win probability: Oregon 94.6% / Boise State 5.4% Spread range across books: -25.0 to -24.0 (9 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:03.824842+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Oregon EV% Boise State EV% ----------- ------ ------ ----------- ------- betmgm -3000 -13.0% +1650 +175.8% betonlineag -3000 -13.0% +1256 +113.7% betrivers -10000 -14.9% +1500 +152.2% betus -3000 -13.0% +1300 +120.6% draftkings -4500 -13.9% +1700 +183.7% fanduel -4000 -13.7% +1400 +136.4% lowvig -3000 -13.0% +1256 +113.7% mybookieag -3030 -13.0% +960 +67.1% Spread: Book Oregon Boise State ----------- ------------ ------------ betmgm -24.5 (-108) +24.5 (-110) betonlineag -24.0 (-115) +24.0 (-105) betrivers -24.5 (-114) +24.5 (-109) betus -24.0 (-115) +24.0 (-105) bovada -24.5 (-105) +24.5 (-115) draftkings -24.5 (-108) +24.5 (-112) fanduel -24.5 (-110) +24.5 (-110) lowvig -24.0 (-111) +24.0 (-101) mybookieag -25.0 (-110) +25.0 (-110) Line movement: opened Oregon -24.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -24.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 194 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Boise State 15.4 -- Oregon 33.4 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Oregon margin -4.0 +6.5 +18.0 +29.7 +40.2 Total points 27.4 37.7 49.0 60.0 70.1 Probability Oregon covers the market spread: 35.5% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: OREGON Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Dante Moore QB Passing yards 188.5 104-266 Pass attempts 28.5 20-36 Completions 19.5 14-26 Passing TDs 1.28 72% 1+, 37% 2+ Rushing yards 6.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.23 21% 1+ Jordon Davison RB Rushing yards 68.7 28-103 Carries 10.7 5-15 Rushing TDs 1.08 66% 1+, 29% 2+ Receiving yards 16.7 -- Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Iverson Hooks WR Receiving yards 61.1 26-109 Receptions 5.4 4-8 Receiving TDs 0.53 41% 1+, 10% 2+ Dierre Hill Jr. RB Rushing yards 54.1 13-86 Carries 6.7 1-8 Rushing TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Receiving yards 22.0 2-36 Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Jamari Johnson TE Receiving yards 44.9 21-66 Receptions 3.1 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Jeremiah McClellan WR Receiving yards 42.8 7-68 Receptions 3.5 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Dakorien Moore WR Receiving yards 40.6 5-66 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Koi Perich DB Tackles 6.2 4-9 Teitum Tuioti LB Tackles 5.0 2-7 Sacks 0.75 53% 1+, 17% 2+ Nasir Wyatt LB Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ BOISE STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Maddux Madsen QB Passing yards 138.7 54-222 Pass attempts 27.4 18-39 Completions 16.6 10-25 Passing TDs 1.53 78% 1+, 45% 2+ Rushing yards 4.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.35 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Dylan Riley RB Rushing yards 59.2 18-117 Carries 13.0 8-20 Rushing TDs 0.47 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Receiving yards 11.1 -- Receptions 2.0 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.09 9% 1+ Sire Gaines RB Rushing yards 52.5 11-94 Carries 11.4 6-17 Rushing TDs 0.47 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Receiving yards 12.7 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Ben Ford WR Receiving yards 41.6 6-63 Receptions 3.3 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.65 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Quinton Brown WR Rushing yards 11.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 37.1 2-65 Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.65 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Cameron Bates WR Rushing yards 21.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Receiving yards 35.7 0-59 Receptions 2.3 -- Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Matt Wagner TE Receiving yards 15.2 -- Receptions 2.2 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Boen Phelps LB Tackles 5.5 2-7 Jaden Mickey DB Tackles 3.9 2-6 Sterling Lane II LB Sacks 1.00 63% 1+, 26% 2+ Jayden Virgin-Morgan LB Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Oregon recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Boise State recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------ ------ 2024 BOIS 34 ORE 37 ORE ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10132