Boston College at Cincinnati NCAA, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 5, 2026 at 7:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Cincinnati by 7.2 points, giving them a 66% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 54.7 combined points, with Cincinnati at 30.9 and Boston College at 23.7. The real sportsbook market agrees closely, also favoring Cincinnati by 7.5 points -- little disagreement between the model and the market here. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Cincinnati's margin lands between -15.0 and +28.9 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Cincinnati -7.2 / Boston College +7.2 Moneyline: Cincinnati -196 / Boston College +196 Win probability: Cincinnati 66.3% / Boston College 33.7% Projected total: 54.7 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Cincinnati: 1466.5, Boston College: 1402.8 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Cincinnati Boston College ----------------- ---------- -------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +2.5 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +7.1 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Cincinnati -7.5 / Boston College +7.5 Consensus moneyline: Cincinnati -310 / Boston College +250 Market no-vig win probability: Cincinnati 72.6% / Boston College 27.4% Spread range across books: -7.5 to -7.5 (8 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:03.830598+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Cincinnati EV% Boston College EV% ----------- ---------- ------ -------------- ------ betmgm -275 -9.6% +225 +9.6% betonlineag -295 -11.3% +241 +15.0% betrivers -305 -12.0% +230 +11.3% betus -295 -11.3% +245 +16.4% bovada -290 -10.9% +240 +14.7% draftkings -310 -12.4% +250 +18.1% fanduel -310 -12.4% +245 +16.4% lowvig -295 -11.3% +241 +15.0% mybookieag -330 -13.6% +240 +14.7% Spread: Book Cincinnati Boston College ----------- ----------- -------------- betmgm -7.5 (-105) +7.5 (-112) betonlineag -7.5 (-107) +7.5 (-113) betrivers -7.5 (-108) +7.5 (-115) betus -7.5 (-105) +7.5 (-115) bovada -7.5 (-105) +7.5 (-115) draftkings -7.5 (-108) +7.5 (-112) fanduel -7.5 (-108) +7.5 (-112) lowvig -7.5 (-103) +7.5 (-109) Line movement: opened Cincinnati -7.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -7.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 194 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Boston College 23.7 -- Cincinnati 30.9 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Cincinnati margin -15.0 -4.6 +7.1 +19.0 +28.9 Total points 33.2 43.1 54.8 65.8 75.9 Probability Cincinnati covers the market spread: 49.2% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: CINCINNATI Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- JC French IV QB Passing yards 289.1 205-385 Pass attempts 30.6 22-38 Completions 20.1 14-24 Passing TDs 2.03 87% 1+, 60% 2+ Rushing yards 36.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.78 54% 1+, 18% 2+ Cole Tabb RB Rushing yards 69.2 28-123 Carries 11.5 6-20 Rushing TDs 0.49 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Receiving yards 19.4 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Zylan Perry RB Rushing yards 66.0 25-95 Carries 11.5 6-15 Rushing TDs 0.81 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Receiving yards 21.3 2-37 Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Cade Wolford WR Rushing yards 23.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.18 17% 1+ Receiving yards 46.2 11-82 Receptions 1.9 -- Receiving TDs 0.48 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Gavin Grover TE Receiving yards 37.4 14-65 Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ JV Gibson WR Receiving yards 34.8 -- Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Isaiah Johnson WR Receiving yards 29.6 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Filip Maciorowski LB Tackles 6.8 4-10 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Jasper Beeler S Tackles 6.8 4-11 Chidera Otutu DL Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ BOSTON COLLEGE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Evan Dickens RB Rushing yards 99.3 58-217 Carries 15.0 10-26 Rushing TDs 1.72 82% 1+, 51% 2+ Receiving yards 19.0 -- Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Nolan Ray RB Rushing yards 48.3 7-88 Carries 7.2 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Receiving yards 18.0 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ VJ Wilkins WR Receiving yards 38.9 3-79 Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kaelan Chudzinski TE Receiving yards 37.5 14-68 Receptions 2.8 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.47 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Javarius Green WR Receiving yards 33.5 -- Receptions 2.5 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Landon Wright WR Receiving yards 29.1 -- Receptions 1.5 -- Receiving TDs 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ KP Price DB Tackles 7.5 6-11 Anthony Palano LB Tackles 5.9 3-10 Kemori Dixon LB Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ Demetrius Ballard DE Sacks 0.21 19% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Cincinnati recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Boston College recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10133