Tulane at Duke NCAA, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 5, 2026 at 7:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Duke by 5.1 points, giving them a 62% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 66.8 combined points, with Duke at 36.0 and Tulane at 30.8. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Duke favored by 9.5 points, a 4.4-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Duke's margin lands between -17.0 and +27.8 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Duke -5.1 / Tulane +5.1 Moneyline: Duke -161 / Tulane +161 Win probability: Duke 61.6% / Tulane 38.4% Projected total: 66.8 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Duke: 1613.8, Tulane: 1619.4 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Duke Tulane ----------------- ---- ------ elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +2.2 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +1.1 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Duke -9.5 / Tulane +9.5 Consensus moneyline: Duke -380 / Tulane +300 Market no-vig win probability: Duke 76.0% / Tulane 24.0% Spread range across books: -9.5 to -8.5 (8 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:03.858629+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Duke EV% Tulane EV% ----------- ---- ------ ------ ------ betmgm -350 -20.8% +280 +45.8% betonlineag -360 -21.3% +289 +49.3% betrivers -375 -21.9% +280 +45.8% betus -360 -21.3% +290 +49.6% bovada -370 -21.7% +285 +47.7% draftkings -380 -22.2% +300 +53.5% fanduel -360 -21.3% +280 +45.8% lowvig -360 -21.3% +289 +49.3% mybookieag -370 -21.7% +265 +40.1% Spread: Book Duke Tulane ----------- ----------- ----------- betmgm -9.5 (-110) +9.5 (-108) betonlineag -9.5 (-105) +9.5 (-115) betrivers -9.5 (-113) +9.5 (-110) betus -9.5 (-110) +9.5 (-110) bovada -8.5 (-110) +8.5 (-110) draftkings -9.5 (-102) +9.5 (-118) fanduel -9.5 (-105) +9.5 (-115) lowvig -9.5 (-101) +9.5 (-111) Line movement: opened Duke -9.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -9.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 194 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Tulane 30.8 -- Duke 36.0 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------ ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Duke margin -17.0 -6.6 +5.1 +17.1 +27.8 Total points 45.0 55.4 66.8 78.4 88.5 Probability Duke covers the market spread: 40.1% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: DUKE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Walker Eget QB Passing yards 307.9 224-514 Pass attempts 33.0 24-50 Completions 20.3 14-31 Passing TDs 1.94 86% 1+, 58% 2+ Rushing yards 21.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Javen Nicholas WR Rushing yards 12.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 65.0 29-138 Receptions 4.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.55 42% 1+, 10% 2+ Nate Sheppard RB Rushing yards 55.3 14-89 Carries 14.6 9-19 Rushing TDs 0.59 44% 1+, 12% 2+ Receiving yards 18.1 -- Receptions 2.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jeremiah Hasley TE Receiving yards 43.8 20-76 Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.74 52% 1+, 17% 2+ Nate Kurisky TE Receiving yards 22.7 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Luke Mergott LB Tackles 8.3 6-11 Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ DaShawn Stone S Tackles 5.6 4-8 Elliott Schaper LB Sacks 0.67 49% 1+, 14% 2+ TULANE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Zeon Chriss-Gremillion QB Passing yards 152.2 68-225 Pass attempts 17.6 9-25 Completions 7.7 2-10 Passing TDs 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Anthony Brown-Stephens WR Rushing yards 12.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 60.4 25-96 Receptions 3.9 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Jamauri McClure RB Rushing yards 57.8 17-103 Carries 10.9 6-19 Rushing TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Receiving yards 13.5 -- Receptions 1.5 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Maurice Turner RB Rushing yards 36.3 -- Carries 8.0 2-13 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Garrett Mmahat WR Receiving yards 34.5 -- Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Zycarl Lewis Jr. WR Receiving yards 34.2 -- Receptions 2.4 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Dawson Johnson TE Receiving yards 14.6 -- Receptions 1.8 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Chris Rodgers LB Tackles 7.5 4-9 Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ Dickson Agu LB Tackles 6.9 4-10 TJ Smith DB Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Duke recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Tulane recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------- ------ 2025 DUKE 27 TULN 34 TULN ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10134