Texas State at Texas NCAA, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 5, 2026 at 7:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Texas by 16.1 points, giving them a 82% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 72.9 combined points, with Texas at 44.4 and Texas State at 28.3. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Texas favored by 30.5 points, a 14.4-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Texas's margin lands between -6.3 and +38.5 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Texas -16.1 / Texas State +16.1 Moneyline: Texas -450 / Texas State +450 Win probability: Texas 81.8% / Texas State 18.2% Projected total: 72.9 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Texas: 1720.3, Texas State: 1544.3 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Texas Texas State ----------------- ----- ----------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +3.9 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +20.0 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Texas -30.5 / Texas State +30.5 Consensus moneyline: Texas -10000 / Texas State +3000 Market no-vig win probability: Texas 96.8% / Texas State 3.2% Spread range across books: -30.5 to -30.5 (9 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:03.874060+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Texas EV% Texas State EV% ---------- ------ ------ ----------- ------- betrivers -10000 -17.4% +2000 +282.2% draftkings -10000 -17.4% +3000 +464.2% fanduel -10000 -17.4% +2400 +355.0% mybookieag -20000 -17.8% +1425 +177.6% Spread: Book Texas Texas State ----------- ------------ ------------ betmgm -30.5 (-112) +30.5 (-108) betonlineag -30.5 (-110) +30.5 (-110) betrivers -30.5 (-110) +30.5 (-113) betus -30.5 (-110) +30.5 (-110) bovada -30.5 (+100) +30.5 (-120) draftkings -30.5 (-105) +30.5 (-115) fanduel -30.5 (-105) +30.5 (-115) lowvig -30.5 (-106) +30.5 (-106) mybookieag -30.5 (-110) +30.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Texas -30.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -30.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 194 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Texas State 28.3 -- Texas 44.4 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------ ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Texas margin -6.3 +4.2 +16.0 +27.9 +38.5 Total points 51.5 61.8 72.6 84.0 93.8 Probability Texas covers the market spread: 20.4% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: TEXAS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Arch Manning QB Passing yards 259.7 175-368 Pass attempts 32.5 24-40 Completions 20.1 14-26 Passing TDs 2.21 89% 1+, 65% 2+ Rushing yards 33.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.74 52% 1+, 17% 2+ Ryan Wingo WR Rushing yards 17.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 64.3 29-120 Receptions 4.4 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.45 36% 1+, 8% 2+ Raleek Brown RB Rushing yards 62.3 21-128 Carries 13.9 8-18 Rushing TDs 0.31 26% 1+ Receiving yards 20.4 1-34 Receptions 3.0 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.31 26% 1+ Cam Coleman WR Receiving yards 60.3 25-109 Receptions 4.7 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.45 36% 1+, 8% 2+ Hollywood Smothers RB Rushing yards 57.3 16-107 Carries 12.7 7-19 Rushing TDs 0.31 26% 1+ Receiving yards 16.5 -- Receptions 3.3 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Emmett Mosley V WR Receiving yards 48.5 13-78 Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.45 36% 1+, 8% 2+ Michael Masunas TE Receiving yards 27.5 4-42 Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Rasheem Biles LB Tackles 9.4 6-14 Sacks 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ Jelani McDonald DB Tackles 6.7 4-10 Brad Spence LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ TEXAS STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Brad Jackson QB Passing yards 250.6 166-350 Pass attempts 28.5 20-36 Completions 20.1 14-25 Passing TDs 1.60 80% 1+, 48% 2+ Rushing yards 53.3 13-86 Rushing TDs 1.26 72% 1+, 36% 2+ Chris Dawn Jr. WR Receiving yards 69.0 33-120 Receptions 5.5 4-8 Receiving TDs 0.45 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Beau Sparks WR Rushing yards 20.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Receiving yards 68.0 32-115 Receptions 5.5 4-8 Receiving TDs 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ Jaylen Jenkins RB Rushing yards 36.4 -- Carries 7.0 2-9 Rushing TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Blake Smith TE Receiving yards 28.1 4-34 Receptions 2.0 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ty Stamey TE Receiving yards 23.6 -- Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kylen Evans WR Receiving yards 22.7 -- Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Torrance Burgess Jr. RB Rushing yards 20.4 -- Carries 7.7 2-9 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Javante Mackey LB Tackles 7.1 4-13 Ryan Nolan DB Tackles 6.4 4-8 DonTerry Russell DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Cole Nilles LB Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Texas recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Texas State recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10135