Oklahoma State at Tulsa NCAA, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 5, 2026 at 7:45 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Tulsa by 5.7 points, giving them a 63% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 45.1 combined points, with Tulsa at 25.3 and Oklahoma State at 19.6. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Oklahoma State favored by 14.0 points, a 19.7-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Tulsa's margin lands between -16.7 and +28.5 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. Injury watch: Jake Springfield (Questionable). ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Tulsa -5.7 / Oklahoma State +5.7 Moneyline: Tulsa -170 / Oklahoma State +170 Win probability: Tulsa 62.9% / Oklahoma State 37.1% Projected total: 45.1 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Tulsa: 1294.7, Oklahoma State: 1266.3 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Tulsa Oklahoma State ----------------- ----- -------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +3.8 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector -1.6 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Tulsa +14.0 / Oklahoma State -14.0 Consensus moneyline: Tulsa +440 / Oklahoma State -600 Market no-vig win probability: Tulsa 17.8% / Oklahoma State 82.2% Spread range across books: +13.5 to +14.5 (9 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:03.902017+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Tulsa EV% Oklahoma State EV% ----------- ----- ------- -------------- ------ betmgm +425 +230.4% -550 -56.2% betonlineag +446 +243.7% -600 -56.8% betrivers +410 +221.0% -590 -56.7% betus +450 +246.2% -600 -56.8% bovada +430 +233.6% -625 -57.0% draftkings +440 +239.9% -600 -56.8% fanduel +450 +246.2% -630 -57.1% lowvig +446 +243.7% -600 -56.8% mybookieag +390 +208.4% -599 -56.8% Spread: Book Tulsa Oklahoma State ----------- ------------ -------------- betmgm +14.0 (-108) -14.0 (-110) betonlineag +14.0 (-110) -14.0 (-110) betrivers +14.0 (-113) -14.0 (-110) betus +14.0 (-110) -14.0 (-110) bovada +13.5 (-105) -13.5 (-115) draftkings +14.0 (-110) -14.0 (-110) fanduel +14.5 (-118) -14.5 (-104) lowvig +14.0 (-106) -14.0 (-106) mybookieag +14.0 (-110) -14.0 (-110) Line movement: opened Tulsa +12.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now +14.0 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 194 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Oklahoma State 19.6 -- Tulsa 25.3 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------ ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Tulsa margin -16.7 -5.8 +5.6 +17.4 +28.5 Total points 23.5 33.7 45.0 56.2 66.3 Probability Tulsa covers the market spread: 87.2% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: TULSA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Baylor Hayes QB Passing yards 246.8 162-302 Pass attempts 31.7 23-41 Completions 18.7 12-24 Passing TDs 1.64 81% 1+, 49% 2+ Rushing yards 24.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Josh Smith WR Receiving yards 52.7 17-103 Receptions 3.3 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.41 34% 1+, 6% 2+ Trequan Jones RB Rushing yards 52.5 11-87 Carries 8.9 4-12 Rushing TDs 0.24 22% 1+ Receiving yards 8.4 -- Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ David Wells Jr. WR Receiving yards 47.9 12-91 Receptions 4.3 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.46 37% 1+, 8% 2+ DJ McKinney RB Rushing yards 44.9 4-64 Carries 9.9 4-16 Rushing TDs 0.73 52% 1+, 17% 2+ Receiving yards 21.4 2-45 Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Grayson Tempest WR Receiving yards 41.0 5-72 Receptions 3.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Jewlyen Roberts TE Receiving yards 16.0 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.47 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Devin Hightower LB Tackles 6.7 4-9 Zach Williams S Tackles 5.8 4-10 Thomas Davis DL Sacks 0.29 25% 1+ Dax Collins LB Sacks 0.17 15% 1+ OKLAHOMA STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Drew Mestemaker QB Passing yards 334.1 250-490 Pass attempts 31.5 23-43 Completions 21.4 15-28 Passing TDs 3.20 96% 1+, 83% 2+ Rushing yards 7.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.46 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Wyatt Young WR Rushing yards 12.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.41 34% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 91.3 56-194 Receptions 5.4 4-8 Receiving TDs 1.07 66% 1+, 29% 2+ Caleb Hawkins RB Rushing yards 79.8 39-154 Carries 14.8 9-24 Rushing TDs 2.20 89% 1+, 64% 2+ Receiving yards 24.8 5-52 Receptions 2.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Rodney Harris II WR Receiving yards 52.5 17-90 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.31 26% 1+ Ayo Adeyi RB Rushing yards 51.1 10-104 Carries 10.1 4-18 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Miles Coleman WR Receiving yards 50.7 15-100 Receptions 3.6 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.31 26% 1+ Ethan Wesloski LB Tackles 8.7 6-13 Isaiah Chisom LB Tackles 5.4 2-8 Billy Walton III DE Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Malik Charles DE Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Tulsa recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Oklahoma State recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------- ------ 2025 TLSA 19 OKST 12 TLSA 2024 OKST 45 TLSA 10 OKST Injury/hazard flags: Player Pos Team Status ---------------- --- ---- ------------ Jake Springfield OL OKST Questionable ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10136