Northern Illinois at Iowa NCAA, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 5, 2026 at 8:15 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Iowa by 25.6 points, giving them a 92% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 42.4 combined points, with Iowa at 33.9 and Northern Illinois at 8.5. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Iowa favored by 31.5 points, a 5.9-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Iowa's margin lands between +3.1 and +47.7 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Iowa -25.6 / Northern Illinois +25.6 Moneyline: Iowa -1094 / Northern Illinois +1094 Win probability: Iowa 91.6% / Northern Illinois 8.4% Projected total: 42.4 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Iowa: 1685.6, Northern Illinois: 1344.2 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Iowa Northern Illinois ----------------- ----- ----------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +2.6 +3.6 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +10.1 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Iowa -31.5 / Northern Illinois +31.5 Consensus moneyline: Iowa -100000 / Northern Illinois +5000 Market no-vig win probability: Iowa 98.1% / Northern Illinois 1.9% Spread range across books: -32.0 to -31.5 (8 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:03.906266+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Iowa EV% Northern Illinois EV% ---------- ------- ----- ----------------- ------- draftkings -100000 -8.3% +5000 +327.4% fanduel -30000 -8.1% +4000 +243.6% mybookieag -100000 -8.3% +1550 +38.3% Spread: Book Iowa Northern Illinois ----------- ------------ ----------------- betmgm -31.5 (-110) +31.5 (-108) betonlineag -32.0 (-110) +32.0 (-110) betrivers -31.5 (-113) +31.5 (-110) betus -32.0 (-110) +32.0 (-110) bovada -32.0 (-110) +32.0 (-110) draftkings -31.5 (-110) +31.5 (-110) fanduel -31.5 (-110) +31.5 (-110) lowvig -32.0 (-106) +32.0 (-106) Line movement: opened Iowa -30.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -31.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 194 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Northern Illinois 8.5 -- Iowa 33.9 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------ ---- ----- ----- ----- ----- Iowa margin +3.1 +13.8 +25.4 +37.0 +47.7 Total points 20.6 31.0 42.4 53.8 63.9 Probability Iowa covers the market spread: 36.6% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: IOWA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Kamari Moulton RB Rushing yards 96.0 55-107 Carries 14.7 9-18 Rushing TDs 0.63 47% 1+, 13% 2+ Receiving yards 19.2 -- Receptions 2.5 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ DJ Vonnahme TE Receiving yards 54.9 31-119 Receptions 3.3 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.49 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Nathan McNeil RB Rushing yards 46.7 6-73 Carries 8.7 3-13 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 24.1 5-46 Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Reece Vander Zee WR Receiving yards 25.3 -- Receptions 2.3 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Zach Ortwerth TE Receiving yards 24.7 1-40 Receptions 1.8 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Dayton Howard WR Receiving yards 18.1 -- Receptions 1.7 -- Receiving TDs 0.08 8% 1+ Tyler Brown DB Tackles 5.8 4-10 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Zach Lutmer DB Tackles 5.3 3-7 Lance Ingold DL Sacks 0.30 26% 1+ NORTHERN ILLINOIS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Brady Davidson QB Passing yards 68.8 -- Pass attempts 18.2 10-30 Completions 8.8 2-14 Passing TDs 0.28 24% 1+ Rushing yards 2.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Telly Johnson Jr. RB Rushing yards 60.5 19-111 Carries 10.0 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.28 25% 1+ Receiving yards 18.4 -- Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Rickey Taylor Jr. WR Receiving yards 51.8 16-89 Receptions 3.1 3-3 Receiving TDs 0.27 24% 1+ DeAree Rogers WR Receiving yards 43.3 8-80 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Elijah Porter RB Rushing yards 31.6 -- Carries 6.2 0-8 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ George Dimopoulos WR Receiving yards 15.1 -- Receptions 2.4 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Dev'ion Reynolds CB Tackles 3.6 2-7 Jay'shon Thomas DE Tackles 3.1 2-5 Sacks 0.29 25% 1+ Broderick Windham LB Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Iowa recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Northern Illinois recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10137