Wyoming at Colorado State NCAA, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 5, 2026 at 10:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Colorado State by 2.1 points, giving them a 55% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 37.2 combined points, with Colorado State at 19.8 and Wyoming at 17.6. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Colorado State favored by 3.5 points, a 1.4-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Colorado State's margin lands between -20.2 and +24.9 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Colorado State -2.1 / Wyoming +2.1 Moneyline: Colorado State -121 / Wyoming +121 Win probability: Colorado State 54.9% / Wyoming 45.1% Projected total: 37.2 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Colorado State: 1315.6, Wyoming: 1365.0 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Colorado State Wyoming ----------------- -------------- ------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 -5.0 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +9.2 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Colorado State -3.5 / Wyoming +3.5 Consensus moneyline: Colorado State -170 / Wyoming +142 Market no-vig win probability: Colorado State 60.4% / Wyoming 39.6% Spread range across books: -3.5 to -3.5 (9 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:03.912539+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Colorado State EV% Wyoming EV% ----------- -------------- ------ ------- ------ betmgm -165 -11.9% +140 +8.4% betonlineag -160 -10.9% +140 +8.4% betrivers -177 -14.2% +133 +5.2% betus -160 -10.9% +138 +7.5% bovada -170 -12.9% +145 +10.6% draftkings -170 -12.9% +142 +9.3% fanduel -164 -11.7% +136 +6.6% lowvig -160 -10.9% +140 +8.4% mybookieag -186 -15.7% +144 +10.2% Spread: Book Colorado State Wyoming ----------- -------------- ----------- betmgm -3.5 (-105) +3.5 (-115) betonlineag -3.5 (+100) +3.5 (-120) betrivers -3.5 (-108) +3.5 (-115) betus -3.5 (+100) +3.5 (-120) bovada -3.5 (-105) +3.5 (-115) draftkings -3.5 (+100) +3.5 (-120) fanduel -3.5 (-105) +3.5 (-115) lowvig -3.5 (+104) +3.5 (-116) mybookieag -3.5 (-110) +3.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Colorado State -4.0 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -3.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 194 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Wyoming 17.6 -- Colorado State 19.8 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Colorado State margin -20.2 -9.8 +2.0 +14.0 +24.9 Total points 16.0 25.9 37.0 48.6 59.2 Probability Colorado State covers the market spread: 46.6% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: COLORADO STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Darius Curry QB Passing yards 148.4 64-252 Pass attempts 26.5 18-46 Completions 16.7 10-29 Passing TDs 0.98 62% 1+, 26% 2+ Rushing yards 9.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Mel Brown RB Rushing yards 50.8 10-86 Carries 9.1 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Tay Lanier WR Receiving yards 35.7 0-61 Receptions 3.7 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Tommy Maher WR Receiving yards 34.7 -- Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Juice Vereen TE Receiving yards 28.4 4-46 Receptions 2.9 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.65 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Lavon Brown WR Receiving yards 27.6 -- Receptions 2.7 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jace Bellah DB Tackles 6.5 4-12 Jake Jarmolowich DB Tackles 6.3 4-8 Lemondre Joe DB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Paul Tangelo LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ WYOMING Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Mason Drube QB Passing yards 172.0 88-301 Pass attempts 25.0 16-44 Completions 14.5 8-25 Passing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Samuel Harris RB Rushing yards 63.9 23-118 Carries 10.8 5-17 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 28.1 9-53 Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Diore Hubbard RB Rushing yards 57.4 16-99 Carries 11.5 6-21 Rushing TDs 0.68 49% 1+, 15% 2+ Receiving yards 27.3 8-71 Receptions 2.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Charlie Coenen WR Receiving yards 40.6 5-66 Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.35 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Eric Richardson WR Receiving yards 26.5 -- Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Deion DeBlanc WR Rushing yards 21.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.27 23% 1+ Receiving yards 22.7 -- Receptions 3.1 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jones Thomas S Tackles 5.1 3-9 Ethan Stuhlsatz LB Tackles 4.4 2-8 Esaia Bogar DE Sacks 0.20 18% 1+ Jett Vincent S Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Colorado State recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Wyoming recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 CSU 0 WYO 28 WYO 2024 WYO 10 CSU 24 CSU 2023 CSU 15 WYO 24 WYO ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10138