Florida International at South Florida NCAA, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 5, 2026 at 11:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors South Florida by 13.2 points, giving them a 77% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 77.8 combined points, with South Florida at 45.5 and Florida International at 32.2. The real sportsbook market agrees closely, also favoring South Florida by 13.5 points -- little disagreement between the model and the market here. Simulating the game 10,000 times, South Florida's margin lands between -8.9 and +35.4 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: South Florida -13.2 / Florida International +13.2 Moneyline: South Florida -343 / Florida International +343 Win probability: South Florida 77.4% / Florida International 22.6% Projected total: 77.8 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- South Florida: 1568.8, Florida International: 1466.6 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor South Florida Florida International ----------------- ------------- --------------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +1.1 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +8.9 -- consecutive_road -- -15.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: South Florida -13.5 / Florida International +13.5 Consensus moneyline: South Florida -575 / Florida International +425 Market no-vig win probability: South Florida 81.7% / Florida International 18.3% Spread range across books: -13.5 to -13.0 (9 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:03.927171+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book South Florida EV% Florida International EV% ----------- ------------- ------ --------------------- ------ betmgm -500 -7.1% +400 +12.9% betonlineag -550 -8.5% +415 +16.3% betrivers -670 -11.0% +440 +21.9% betus -500 -7.1% +390 +10.6% bovada -575 -9.1% +400 +12.9% draftkings -575 -9.1% +425 +18.5% fanduel -550 -8.5% +400 +12.9% lowvig -550 -8.5% +415 +16.3% mybookieag -599 -9.7% +390 +10.6% Spread: Book South Florida Florida International ----------- ------------- --------------------- betmgm -13.5 (-108) +13.5 (-110) betonlineag -13.5 (-110) +13.5 (-110) betrivers -13.5 (-112) +13.5 (-110) betus -13.5 (-110) +13.5 (-110) bovada -13.0 (-110) +13.0 (-110) draftkings -13.5 (-110) +13.5 (-110) fanduel -13.5 (-110) +13.5 (-110) lowvig -13.5 (-106) +13.5 (-106) mybookieag -13.5 (-110) +13.5 (-110) Line movement: opened South Florida -12.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -13.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 194 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Florida International 32.2 -- South Florida 45.5 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- South Florida margin -8.9 +1.5 +13.4 +25.3 +35.4 Total points 56.1 66.3 77.6 89.0 99.5 Probability South Florida covers the market spread: 49.7% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: SOUTH FLORIDA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Michael Van Buren Jr. QB Passing yards 177.1 93-278 Pass attempts 26.5 18-41 Completions 16.2 10-26 Passing TDs 1.40 75% 1+, 41% 2+ Rushing yards 21.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Alvon Isaac RB Rushing yards 47.4 6-73 Carries 8.3 2-12 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 25.0 6-49 Receptions 2.3 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Mudia Reuben WR Receiving yards 45.3 10-95 Receptions 3.6 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.66 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Kenny Odom WR Rushing yards 13.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 38.8 3-67 Receptions 4.8 2-8 Receiving TDs 0.53 41% 1+, 10% 2+ Arhmad Branch WR Receiving yards 32.8 -- Receptions 2.3 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Wyatt Sullivan TE Receiving yards 25.8 2-45 Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Tavin Ward S Tackles 5.9 4-10 Ayden Jackson DB Tackles 5.8 4-8 Shamar Meikle LB Sacks 0.29 25% 1+ MarShon Oxley LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- JJ Kohl QB Passing yards 198.4 114-306 Pass attempts 28.2 20-43 Completions 17.4 12-27 Passing TDs 1.40 75% 1+, 41% 2+ Rushing yards 14.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.16 14% 1+ Sterling Joseph RB Rushing yards 41.1 -- Carries 6.6 1-8 Rushing TDs 0.58 44% 1+, 12% 2+ Jojo Stone WR Rushing yards 6.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 40.1 4-55 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Maguire Anderson WR Receiving yards 35.7 0-61 Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.08 8% 1+ Kyle McNeal WR Receiving yards 33.4 -- Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.08 8% 1+ Anthony Carrie RB Rushing yards 30.8 -- Carries 9.3 4-11 Rushing TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Receiving yards 9.5 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jackson Verdugo TE Receiving yards 21.1 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Shamir Sterlin DB Tackles 5.6 4-9 Josiah Taylor LB Tackles 5.3 2-8 Kenton Simmons DE Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Dante Anderson DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ South Florida recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Florida International recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10139