Missouri State at Texas A&M NCAA, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 5, 2026 at 11:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Texas A&M by 19.9 points, giving them a 87% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 55.8 combined points, with Texas A&M at 37.9 and Missouri State at 18.1. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Texas A&M favored by 41.5 points, a 21.6-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Texas A&M's margin lands between -2.0 and +41.6 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Texas A&M -19.9 / Missouri State +19.9 Moneyline: Texas A&M -641 / Missouri State +641 Win probability: Texas A&M 86.5% / Missouri State 13.5% Projected total: 55.8 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Texas A&M: 1667.3, Missouri State: 1423.8 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Texas A&M Missouri State ----------------- --------- -------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +2.5 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +12.9 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Texas A&M -41.5 / Missouri State +41.5 Spread range across books: -41.5 to -40.0 (9 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:03.949158+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Texas A&M EV% Missouri State EV% ---------- --------- ------ -------------- ------- mybookieag -100000 -13.4% +1550 +122.6% Spread: Book Texas A&M Missouri State ----------- ------------ -------------- betmgm -41.0 (-108) +41.0 (-110) betonlineag -41.0 (-110) +41.0 (-110) betrivers -40.0 (-112) +40.0 (-112) betus -41.0 (-110) +41.0 (-110) bovada -40.5 (-115) +40.5 (-105) draftkings -41.5 (-102) +41.5 (-118) fanduel -41.5 (-105) +41.5 (-115) lowvig -41.0 (-106) +41.0 (-106) mybookieag -40.5 (-110) +40.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Texas A&M -38.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -41.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 194 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Missouri State 18.1 -- Texas A&M 37.9 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ---------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Texas A&M margin -2.0 +8.4 +19.9 +31.3 +41.6 Total points 35.0 44.9 56.0 67.4 77.5 Probability Texas A&M covers the market spread: 10.1% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: TEXAS A&M Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Marcel Reed QB Passing yards 258.5 174-357 Pass attempts 30.0 22-37 Completions 18.8 12-24 Passing TDs 1.70 82% 1+, 51% 2+ Rushing yards 46.3 6-82 Rushing TDs 0.65 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Rueben Owens II RB Rushing yards 55.3 14-95 Carries 11.9 6-17 Rushing TDs 0.64 47% 1+, 13% 2+ Receiving yards 17.0 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Mario Craver WR Rushing yards 18.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.17 15% 1+ Receiving yards 50.9 15-80 Receptions 4.1 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ashton Bethel-Roman WR Receiving yards 49.7 14-91 Receptions 2.9 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Richie Anderson TE Receiving yards 37.4 14-68 Receptions 3.2 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.32 27% 1+ Houston Thomas TE Receiving yards 35.8 12-67 Receptions 3.1 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.32 27% 1+ Isaiah Horton WR Receiving yards 33.8 -- Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Jamarion Morrow RB Rushing yards 21.6 -- Carries 6.4 1-9 Rushing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Receiving yards 19.5 0-32 Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.51 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Ray Coney LB Tackles 9.0 6-12 Tawfiq Byard S Tackles 6.5 4-10 Ryan Henderson DE Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Dalton Brooks S Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ MISSOURI STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Skyler Locklear QB Passing yards 156.5 72-234 Pass attempts 27.4 18-38 Completions 15.8 10-22 Passing TDs 1.47 77% 1+, 43% 2+ Rushing yards 33.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.90 59% 1+, 23% 2+ Jmariyae Robinson WR Rushing yards 16.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 49.1 14-76 Receptions 4.1 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.72 52% 1+, 16% 2+ Ramone Green Jr. RB Rushing yards 42.4 1-64 Carries 6.0 0-8 Rushing TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Receiving yards 33.9 14-69 Receptions 2.7 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Jeron Askren TE Receiving yards 34.1 10-68 Receptions 2.6 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Connor Lair RB Rushing yards 29.7 -- Carries 6.7 1-9 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 25.2 6-44 Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Makai Cope WR Receiving yards 28.8 -- Receptions 2.3 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Dillon Hipp TE Receiving yards 14.6 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jared Lloyd LB Tackles 6.3 4-10 Dylan Dixson S Tackles 4.4 2-6 Caden Wiest DE Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ Malachi Madison DL Sacks 0.20 18% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Texas A&M recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Missouri State recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10140