Arkansas State at Memphis NCAA, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 5, 2026 at 11:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Memphis by 5.5 points, giving them a 63% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 53.7 combined points, with Memphis at 29.7 and Arkansas State at 24.2. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Memphis favored by 9.5 points, a 4.0-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Memphis's margin lands between -16.9 and +27.6 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Memphis -5.5 / Arkansas State +5.5 Moneyline: Memphis -167 / Arkansas State +167 Win probability: Memphis 62.5% / Arkansas State 37.5% Projected total: 53.7 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Memphis: 1515.4, Arkansas State: 1469.6 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Memphis Arkansas State ----------------- ------- -------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +2.1 +3.8 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector -0.2 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Memphis -9.5 / Arkansas State +9.5 Consensus moneyline: Memphis -365 / Arkansas State +285 Market no-vig win probability: Memphis 75.1% / Arkansas State 24.9% Spread range across books: -9.5 to -8.5 (4 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:03.916082+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Memphis EV% Arkansas State EV% ----------- ------- ------ -------------- ------ betmgm -325 -18.3% +270 +38.7% betonlineag -300 -16.7% +245 +29.3% betrivers -335 -18.8% +250 +31.2% betus -300 -16.7% +250 +31.2% bovada -310 -17.3% +255 +33.1% draftkings -310 -17.3% +250 +31.2% fanduel -365 -20.4% +285 +44.3% lowvig -300 -16.7% +245 +29.3% mybookieag -340 -19.1% +250 +31.2% Spread: Book Memphis Arkansas State ----------- ----------- -------------- betmgm -8.5 (-108) +8.5 (-110) betonlineag -8.5 (-108) +8.5 (-112) betrivers -8.5 (-109) +8.5 (-114) betus -8.5 (-105) +8.5 (-115) bovada -8.5 (-110) +8.5 (-110) draftkings -8.5 (-112) +8.5 (-108) fanduel -9.5 (-110) +9.5 (-110) lowvig -8.5 (-104) +8.5 (-108) mybookieag -8.5 (-110) +8.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Memphis -10.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -9.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 194 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Arkansas State 24.2 -- Memphis 29.7 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Memphis margin -16.9 -6.2 +5.3 +17.2 +27.6 Total points 32.6 42.8 53.7 65.0 75.1 Probability Memphis covers the market spread: 40.3% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: MEMPHIS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Dallan Hayden RB Rushing yards 52.5 11-83 Carries 10.0 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Receiving yards 14.5 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Manny Covey RB Rushing yards 51.1 10-90 Carries 8.6 3-13 Rushing TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Receiving yards 24.0 4-42 Receptions 2.8 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Hunter Tipton TE Receiving yards 38.7 15-57 Receptions 3.6 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Tychaun Chapman WR Receiving yards 37.1 2-60 Receptions 2.7 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Brady Kluse WR Receiving yards 27.0 -- Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Bryce Dorsey WR Receiving yards 24.0 -- Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Mike Montgomery LB Tackles 7.8 5-11 Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ J'Mond Tapp DL Tackles 5.2 4-7 Sacks 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ ARKANSAS STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Chauncy Cobb WR Receiving yards 58.4 23-98 Receptions 4.9 3-8 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Hunter Summers WR Receiving yards 43.0 7-62 Receptions 3.7 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Devin Spencer RB Rushing yards 42.0 1-74 Carries 10.0 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Receiving yards 12.9 -- Receptions 2.7 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kenyon Clay RB Rushing yards 41.2 0-71 Carries 11.1 6-16 Rushing TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Receiving yards 16.7 -- Receptions 3.0 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Jaylen Bonelli WR Receiving yards 26.7 -- Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Jabari Bush TE Receiving yards 23.8 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ AG McGhee S Tackles 6.7 4-10 Brandon Greil S Tackles 5.4 3-9 Shakai Woods DT Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Sultan Badmus DE Sacks 0.17 15% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Memphis recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Arkansas State recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2023 MEM 37 ARST 3 MEM ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10141