Sam Houston at Troy NCAA, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 5, 2026 at 11:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Troy by 17.9 points, giving them a 84% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 44.2 combined points, with Troy at 31.1 and Sam Houston at 13.1. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Troy favored by 16.5 points, a 1.4-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Troy's margin lands between -4.1 and +40.1 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Troy -17.9 / Sam Houston +17.9 Moneyline: Troy -532 / Sam Houston +532 Win probability: Troy 84.2% / Sam Houston 15.8% Projected total: 44.2 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Troy: 1492.1, Sam Houston: 1295.1 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Troy Sam Houston ----------------- ---- ----------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +3.6 +2.3 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +6.9 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Troy -16.5 / Sam Houston +16.5 Consensus moneyline: Troy -1000 / Sam Houston +650 Market no-vig win probability: Troy 87.2% / Sam Houston 12.8% Spread range across books: -17.0 to -16.5 (9 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:03.951657+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Troy EV% Sam Houston EV% ----------- ----- ----- ----------- ------ betmgm -750 -4.6% +575 +6.9% betonlineag -850 -5.9% +586 +8.6% betrivers -910 -6.6% +575 +6.9% betus -850 -5.9% +580 +7.6% bovada -950 -7.0% +600 +10.8% draftkings -1000 -7.4% +650 +18.7% fanduel -1000 -7.4% +640 +17.1% lowvig -850 -5.9% +586 +8.6% mybookieag -901 -6.5% +520 -1.9% Spread: Book Troy Sam Houston ----------- ------------ ------------ betmgm -16.5 (-110) +16.5 (-108) betonlineag -16.5 (-110) +16.5 (-110) betrivers -16.5 (-112) +16.5 (-112) betus -16.5 (-110) +16.5 (-110) bovada -17.0 (-105) +17.0 (-115) draftkings -16.5 (-115) +16.5 (-105) fanduel -16.5 (-115) +16.5 (-105) lowvig -16.5 (-106) +16.5 (-106) mybookieag -17.0 (-110) +17.0 (-110) Line movement: opened Troy -17.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -16.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 194 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Sam Houston 13.1 -- Troy 31.1 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------ ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Troy margin -4.1 +6.4 +18.1 +29.6 +40.1 Total points 22.7 32.8 44.2 55.6 65.9 Probability Troy covers the market spread: 53.6% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: TROY Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Goose Crowder QB Passing yards 242.4 158-426 Pass attempts 27.2 18-43 Completions 16.4 10-27 Passing TDs 1.25 71% 1+, 36% 2+ Rushing yards 6.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.18 17% 1+ Jordan Lovett RB Rushing yards 50.0 9-97 Carries 9.3 4-16 Rushing TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Receiving yards 20.5 1-44 Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jackson Worley TE Receiving yards 21.2 -- Receptions 1.6 -- Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Justin Powe S Tackles 6.7 4-9 TJ Thompson LB Tackles 3.5 0-5 Donnie Smith DB Sacks 1.00 63% 1+, 26% 2+ Ty Clemons DT Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ SAM HOUSTON Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Landyn Locke QB Passing yards 142.4 58-234 Pass attempts 26.8 18-42 Completions 15.0 9-24 Passing TDs 0.58 44% 1+, 11% 2+ Rushing yards 2.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Chris Reed WR Receiving yards 58.4 23-82 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.60 45% 1+, 12% 2+ Landan Brown RB Rushing yards 57.5 16-102 Carries 9.5 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.51 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Receiving yards 27.9 8-51 Receptions 3.6 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Alton McCaskill RB Rushing yards 55.2 14-85 Carries 11.1 6-14 Rushing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Receiving yards 19.1 -- Receptions 2.5 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Grady O'Neill WR Receiving yards 45.9 10-83 Receptions 3.9 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Tim Burns Jr. WR Receiving yards 36.5 1-60 Receptions 1.9 -- Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Max Whisner TE Receiving yards 21.7 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Tyler Bailey S Tackles 4.8 2-7 Dylan Frazier DT Tackles 4.5 3-9 Chauncey Chidi DE Sacks 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Dean Ford LB Sacks 0.29 25% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Troy recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Sam Houston recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10142