UL Monroe at Mississippi State NCAA, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 5, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Mississippi State by 12.4 points, giving them a 76% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 52.7 combined points, with Mississippi State at 32.7 and UL Monroe at 20.2. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Mississippi State favored by 28.5 points, a 16.1-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Mississippi State's margin lands between -9.6 and +34.6 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Mississippi State -12.4 / UL Monroe +12.4 Moneyline: Mississippi State -319 / UL Monroe +319 Win probability: Mississippi State 76.1% / UL Monroe 23.9% Projected total: 52.7 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Mississippi State: 1400.2, UL Monroe: 1283.8 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Mississippi State UL Monroe ----------------- ----------------- --------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +3.1 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +4.3 -- consecutive_road -- -15.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Mississippi State -28.5 / UL Monroe +28.5 Consensus moneyline: Mississippi State -6500 / UL Monroe +2000 Market no-vig win probability: Mississippi State 95.4% / UL Monroe 4.6% Spread range across books: -28.5 to -28.5 (9 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:03.959131+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Mississippi State EV% UL Monroe EV% ---------- ----------------- ------ --------- ------- betmgm -10000 -23.1% +2000 +401.1% betrivers -10000 -23.1% +1900 +377.2% draftkings -6500 -22.7% +2000 +401.1% fanduel -8000 -22.9% +2200 +448.8% mybookieag -10000 -23.1% +1325 +240.0% Spread: Book Mississippi State UL Monroe ----------- ----------------- ------------ betmgm -28.5 (-108) +28.5 (-110) betonlineag -28.5 (-110) +28.5 (-110) betrivers -28.5 (-109) +28.5 (-114) betus -28.5 (-110) +28.5 (-110) bovada -28.5 (-110) +28.5 (-110) draftkings -28.5 (-115) +28.5 (-105) fanduel -28.5 (-112) +28.5 (-108) lowvig -28.5 (-106) +28.5 (-106) mybookieag -28.5 (-110) +28.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Mississippi State -28.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -28.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 194 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: UL Monroe 20.2 -- Mississippi State 32.7 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------------------ ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Mississippi State margin -9.6 +0.9 +12.7 +24.1 +34.6 Total points 31.1 41.6 52.8 64.1 74.4 Probability Mississippi State covers the market spread: 17.4% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: MISSISSIPPI STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- AJ Swann QB Passing yards 207.6 123-353 Pass attempts 30.5 22-46 Completions 18.5 12-30 Passing TDs 1.39 75% 1+, 41% 2+ Rushing yards 5.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Anthony Evans III WR Rushing yards 16.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 69.6 34-108 Receptions 5.1 3-8 Receiving TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Fluff Bothwell RB Rushing yards 53.1 12-90 Carries 12.5 7-18 Rushing TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Receiving yards 14.1 -- Receptions 2.0 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Marquis Johnson WR Receiving yards 39.6 4-66 Receptions 3.5 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.17 15% 1+ Ayden Williams WR Receiving yards 30.3 -- Receptions 2.3 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Xavier Gayten RB Rushing yards 29.3 -- Carries 6.3 1-8 Rushing TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Receiving yards 9.1 -- Receptions 1.5 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Sam West TE Receiving yards 9.4 -- Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Marcus Williams S Tackles 6.5 4-10 Isaac Smith S Tackles 6.4 4-10 Kalvin Dinkins DL Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Derion Gullette LB Sacks 0.21 19% 1+ UL MONROE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Aidan Armenta QB Passing yards 197.1 113-272 Pass attempts 26.2 18-32 Completions 15.8 10-20 Passing TDs 1.34 74% 1+, 39% 2+ Rushing yards 5.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Nic Trujillo WR Receiving yards 57.7 22-104 Receptions 3.5 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.79 54% 1+, 19% 2+ JP Coulter WR Receiving yards 33.7 -- Receptions 2.4 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Brandon Buckhaulter WR Receiving yards 27.5 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.46 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Bryce Anderson TE Receiving yards 13.7 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Noah Flemmings LB Tackles 6.9 4-10 Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ Jabari Tiller DB Tackles 4.9 2-8 Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Mississippi State recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games UL Monroe recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10143