Clemson at LSU NCAA, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 5, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors LSU by 3.9 points, giving them a 59% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 43.2 combined points, with LSU at 23.4 and Clemson at 19.6. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: LSU favored by 10.5 points, a 6.6-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, LSU's margin lands between -18.3 and +26.0 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: LSU -3.9 / Clemson +3.9 Moneyline: LSU -144 / Clemson +144 Win probability: LSU 59.0% / Clemson 41.0% Projected total: 43.2 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- LSU: 1557.3, Clemson: 1577.0 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor LSU Clemson ----------------- ----- ------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +3.2 +2.3 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +16.9 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: LSU -10.5 / Clemson +10.5 Consensus moneyline: LSU -380 / Clemson +300 Market no-vig win probability: LSU 76.0% / Clemson 24.0% Spread range across books: -11.0 to -10.5 (9 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:03.955076+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book LSU EV% Clemson EV% ----------- ---- ------ ------- ------ betmgm -425 -27.1% +320 +72.2% betonlineag -420 -27.0% +330 +76.3% betrivers -500 -29.2% +360 +88.6% betus -410 -26.6% +325 +74.3% bovada -430 -27.3% +320 +72.2% draftkings -380 -25.5% +300 +64.0% fanduel -430 -27.3% +330 +76.3% lowvig -420 -27.0% +330 +76.3% mybookieag -469 -28.4% +330 +76.3% Spread: Book LSU Clemson ----------- ------------ ------------ betmgm -10.5 (-108) +10.5 (-110) betonlineag -10.5 (-108) +10.5 (-112) betrivers -11.0 (-113) +11.0 (-110) betus -10.5 (-110) +10.5 (-110) bovada -10.5 (-105) +10.5 (-115) draftkings -10.5 (-110) +10.5 (-110) fanduel -10.5 (-110) +10.5 (-110) lowvig -10.5 (-104) +10.5 (-108) mybookieag -10.5 (-110) +10.5 (-110) Line movement: opened LSU -11.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -10.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 194 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Clemson 19.6 -- LSU 23.4 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------ ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- LSU margin -18.3 -8.1 +3.8 +15.7 +26.0 Total points 21.2 31.8 43.0 54.3 64.7 Probability LSU covers the market spread: 35.0% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: LSU Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Sam Leavitt QB Passing yards 258.6 174-366 Pass attempts 31.8 23-42 Completions 19.4 13-27 Passing TDs 1.25 71% 1+, 35% 2+ Rushing yards 42.6 2-74 Rushing TDs 0.47 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Jackson Harris WR Receiving yards 106.2 71-163 Receptions 4.7 2-7 Receiving TDs 1.52 78% 1+, 45% 2+ Jayce Brown WR Rushing yards 42.6 7-87 Rushing TDs 0.28 24% 1+ Receiving yards 80.0 44-136 Receptions 3.7 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.55 42% 1+, 11% 2+ Tre' Brown WR Receiving yards 66.2 31-132 Receptions 3.0 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.41 34% 1+, 6% 2+ Harlem Berry RB Rushing yards 47.8 7-72 Carries 10.8 5-16 Rushing TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Receiving yards 13.5 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Dilin Jones RB Rushing yards 45.7 5-70 Carries 11.1 6-16 Rushing TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Receiving yards 8.1 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Trey'Dez Green TE Receiving yards 38.3 14-72 Receptions 3.6 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.78 54% 1+, 18% 2+ Malachi Thomas TE Receiving yards 20.2 -- Receptions 2.0 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.11 11% 1+ Ty Benefield S Tackles 7.5 5-10 Davhon Keys LB Tackles 7.2 4-11 Princewill Umanmielen DE Sacks 1.00 63% 1+, 26% 2+ Stephiylan Green DT Sacks 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ CLEMSON Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Christopher Vizzina QB Passing yards 181.6 97-374 Pass attempts 26.7 18-50 Completions 16.8 10-34 Passing TDs 0.84 57% 1+, 20% 2+ Rushing yards 10.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Bryant Wesco Jr. WR Receiving yards 68.2 32-100 Receptions 4.7 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.86 58% 1+, 21% 2+ T.J. Moore WR Receiving yards 62.5 27-99 Receptions 4.1 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Chris Johnson Jr. RB Rushing yards 40.3 -- Carries 7.7 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.31 27% 1+ Receiving yards 13.8 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Tristan Smith WR Receiving yards 32.2 -- Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Christian Bentancur TE Receiving yards 29.6 6-49 Receptions 2.7 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Gideon Davidson RB Rushing yards 26.8 -- Carries 8.5 3-12 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 15.3 -- Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Olsen Patt-Henry TE Receiving yards 19.7 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Sammy Brown LB Tackles 8.8 6-12 Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Corey Myrick S Tackles 7.4 5-10 Jahiem Lawson DE Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ LSU recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Clemson recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------- ------ 2025 LSU 17 CLEM 10 LSU ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10144