Western Michigan at Michigan NCAA, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 5, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Michigan by 7.6 points, giving them a 67% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 39.1 combined points, with Michigan at 23.1 and Western Michigan at 15.8. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Michigan favored by 27.5 points, a 19.9-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Michigan's margin lands between -14.6 and +29.6 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Michigan -7.6 / Western Michigan +7.6 Moneyline: Michigan -203 / Western Michigan +203 Win probability: Michigan 67.0% / Western Michigan 33.0% Projected total: 39.1 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Michigan: 1627.7, Western Michigan: 1577.5 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Michigan Western Michigan ----------------- -------- ---------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +0.6 +3.7 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +10.9 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Michigan -27.5 / Western Michigan +27.5 Consensus moneyline: Michigan -6500 / Western Michigan +2000 Market no-vig win probability: Michigan 95.4% / Western Michigan 4.6% Spread range across books: -28.5 to -27.5 (9 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:03.945932+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Michigan EV% Western Michigan EV% ----------- -------- ------ ---------------- ------- betmgm -10000 -32.3% +2000 +593.2% betonlineag -5000 -31.7% +1550 +444.7% betrivers -5000 -31.7% +1400 +395.1% draftkings -6500 -32.0% +2000 +593.2% fanduel -10000 -32.3% +2400 +725.2% lowvig -5000 -31.7% +1550 +444.7% mybookieag -7692 -32.1% +1225 +337.4% Spread: Book Michigan Western Michigan ----------- ------------ ---------------- betmgm -28.0 (-108) +28.0 (-110) betonlineag -28.5 (-105) +28.5 (-115) betrivers -27.5 (-113) +27.5 (-110) betus -28.5 (-105) +28.5 (-115) bovada -27.5 (-115) +27.5 (-105) draftkings -27.5 (-115) +27.5 (-105) fanduel -27.5 (-115) +27.5 (-105) lowvig -28.5 (-101) +28.5 (-111) mybookieag -27.5 (-110) +27.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Michigan -26.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -27.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 194 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Western Michigan 15.8 -- Michigan 23.1 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Michigan margin -14.6 -4.4 +7.4 +19.0 +29.6 Total points 17.8 27.8 38.8 50.1 59.9 Probability Michigan covers the market spread: 12.2% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: MICHIGAN Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Bryce Underwood QB Passing yards 135.4 51-192 Pass attempts 26.9 18-36 Completions 16.6 10-23 Passing TDs 0.74 52% 1+, 17% 2+ Rushing yards 19.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.28 24% 1+ Jordan Marshall RB Rushing yards 78.1 37-131 Carries 12.7 7-21 Rushing TDs 0.95 62% 1+, 25% 2+ Receiving yards 17.0 -- Receptions 2.0 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Andrew Marsh WR Receiving yards 58.0 22-114 Receptions 4.8 3-8 Receiving TDs 0.41 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Bryson Kuzdzal RB Rushing yards 54.0 13-92 Carries 11.1 6-20 Rushing TDs 0.55 42% 1+, 10% 2+ Receiving yards 13.3 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ JJ Buchanan WR Receiving yards 42.9 7-64 Receptions 2.7 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.41 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Channing Goodwin WR Receiving yards 21.6 -- Receptions 1.9 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Zack Marshall TE Receiving yards 17.4 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Deakon Tonielli TE Receiving yards 13.7 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Chris Bracy S Tackles 6.5 4-8 John Henry Daley DE Tackles 4.4 3-6 Sacks 0.81 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Max Alford LB Sacks 0.17 15% 1+ WESTERN MICHIGAN Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Broc Lowry QB Passing yards 151.4 67-214 Pass attempts 21.8 13-29 Completions 14.3 8-21 Passing TDs 0.68 49% 1+, 15% 2+ Rushing yards 67.5 27-95 Rushing TDs 0.90 59% 1+, 23% 2+ Jalen Buckley RB Rushing yards 62.9 22-123 Carries 12.4 7-19 Rushing TDs 0.85 57% 1+, 21% 2+ Receiving yards 14.7 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.09 9% 1+ Aveion Chenault WR Rushing yards 20.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 31.3 -- Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Baylin Brooks WR Receiving yards 28.7 -- Receptions 2.4 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ofa Mataele RB Rushing yards 20.1 -- Carries 5.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.09 9% 1+ Receiving yards 5.5 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jarvarius Sims CB Tackles 4.9 3-8 Micah Davis S Tackles 4.9 2-6 DeJuan Echoles Jr. DE Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Dakari Frazier DL Sacks 0.10 10% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Michigan recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Western Michigan recent form: 5-0 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10145