Florida Atlantic at Florida NCAA, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 5, 2026 at 11:45 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Florida by 15.1 points, giving them a 80% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 61.4 combined points, with Florida at 38.5 and Florida Atlantic at 22.9. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Florida favored by 27.5 points, a 12.4-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Florida's margin lands between -6.5 and +37.8 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Florida -15.1 / Florida Atlantic +15.1 Moneyline: Florida -411 / Florida Atlantic +411 Win probability: Florida 80.4% / Florida Atlantic 19.6% Projected total: 61.4 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Florida: 1493.6, Florida Atlantic: 1349.1 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Florida Florida Atlantic ----------------- ------- ---------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +3.2 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +15.3 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Florida -27.5 / Florida Atlantic +27.5 Consensus moneyline: Florida -5000 / Florida Atlantic +1800 Market no-vig win probability: Florida 94.9% / Florida Atlantic 5.1% Spread range across books: -27.5 to -26.5 (8 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:03.962957+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Florida EV% Florida Atlantic EV% ----------- ------- ------ ---------------- ------- betmgm -5000 -18.0% +1800 +271.8% betonlineag -4500 -17.8% +1500 +213.1% betrivers -5000 -18.0% +1500 +213.1% bovada -10000 -18.8% +1600 +232.7% draftkings -5000 -18.0% +1800 +271.8% fanduel -4500 -17.8% +1600 +232.7% lowvig -4500 -17.8% +1500 +213.1% mybookieag -10099 -18.8% +1389 +191.4% Spread: Book Florida Florida Atlantic ----------- ------------ ---------------- betmgm -27.5 (-108) +27.5 (-110) betonlineag -26.5 (-115) +26.5 (-105) betrivers -27.0 (-108) +27.0 (-115) betus -26.5 (-115) +26.5 (-105) bovada -26.5 (-115) +26.5 (-105) draftkings -27.5 (-105) +27.5 (-115) fanduel -26.5 (-115) +26.5 (-105) lowvig -26.5 (-111) +26.5 (-101) Line movement: opened Florida -26.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -27.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 194 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Florida Atlantic 22.9 -- Florida 38.5 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Florida margin -6.5 +3.9 +15.3 +27.4 +37.8 Total points 39.7 49.9 61.3 72.9 83.3 Probability Florida covers the market spread: 24.8% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: FLORIDA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jadan Baugh RB Rushing yards 77.6 36-155 Carries 14.9 10-23 Rushing TDs 0.87 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Receiving yards 21.2 2-31 Receptions 3.1 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.29 25% 1+ London Montgomery RB Rushing yards 68.8 28-103 Carries 12.9 8-19 Rushing TDs 0.73 52% 1+, 17% 2+ Receiving yards 13.8 -- Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Vernell Brown III WR Receiving yards 49.4 14-83 Receptions 4.0 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Eric Singleton Jr. WR Rushing yards 12.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 46.7 11-79 Receptions 4.6 2-8 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Dallas Wilson WR Receiving yards 46.4 11-100 Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.84 57% 1+, 20% 2+ Luke Harpring TE Receiving yards 38.7 15-63 Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Lacota Dippre TE Receiving yards 30.0 6-46 Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.32 27% 1+ Alfonzo Allen Jr. S Tackles 7.1 4-12 Myles Graham LB Tackles 6.4 4-9 Jayden Woods LB Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Kamran James DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ FLORIDA ATLANTIC Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Caden Veltkamp QB Passing yards 301.0 217-409 Pass attempts 36.3 28-49 Completions 24.0 18-34 Passing TDs 1.82 84% 1+, 54% 2+ Rushing yards 5.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Easton Messer WR Receiving yards 81.8 46-122 Receptions 6.6 4-9 Receiving TDs 0.47 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Kaden Shields-Dutton RB Rushing yards 63.7 23-108 Carries 9.9 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.97 62% 1+, 26% 2+ Receiving yards 22.5 3-38 Receptions 2.8 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Dominique Henry WR Receiving yards 59.0 23-114 Receptions 3.8 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.19 17% 1+ RJ Garcia II WR Receiving yards 36.0 0-62 Receptions 2.8 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ethan Ervin RB Rushing yards 23.9 -- Carries 6.0 0-7 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Brooks Johnson TE Receiving yards 18.4 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.10 9% 1+ Leon Hart Jr. LB Tackles 8.2 5-12 Jayden Sweeney S Tackles 4.8 2-7 Jay Crable DB Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Josh Roberts DB Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Florida recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Florida Atlantic recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10146