Central Michigan at New Mexico NCAA, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 6, 2026 at 2:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors New Mexico by 13.7 points, giving them a 78% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 38.0 combined points, with New Mexico at 25.7 and Central Michigan at 11.9. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: New Mexico favored by 10.5 points, a 3.2-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, New Mexico's margin lands between -8.8 and +36.5 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: New Mexico -13.7 / Central Michigan +13.7 Moneyline: New Mexico -361 / Central Michigan +361 Win probability: New Mexico 78.3% / Central Michigan 21.7% Projected total: 38.0 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- New Mexico: 1555.7, Central Michigan: 1422.5 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor New Mexico Central Michigan ----------------- ---------- ---------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +1.1 +0.6 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +4.3 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: New Mexico -10.5 / Central Michigan +10.5 Consensus moneyline: New Mexico -410 / Central Michigan +315 Market no-vig win probability: New Mexico 76.9% / Central Michigan 23.1% Spread range across books: -10.5 to -10.0 (8 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:03.972316+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book New Mexico EV% Central Michigan EV% ----------- ---------- ----- ---------------- ------ betmgm -425 -3.3% +333 -6.0% betonlineag -415 -2.8% +327 -7.3% betrivers -435 -3.7% +325 -7.8% betus -390 -1.6% +312 -10.6% bovada -470 -5.0% +345 -3.4% draftkings -520 -6.6% +390 +6.3% fanduel -410 -2.6% +315 -9.9% lowvig -415 -2.8% +327 -7.3% mybookieag -461 -4.7% +320 -8.9% Spread: Book New Mexico Central Michigan ----------- ------------ ---------------- betmgm -10.5 (-108) +10.5 (-110) betonlineag -10.5 (-105) +10.5 (-115) betrivers -10.5 (-114) +10.5 (-109) betus -10.0 (-110) +10.0 (-110) bovada -10.0 (-110) +10.0 (-110) draftkings -12.5 (-110) +12.5 (-110) fanduel -10.5 (-104) +10.5 (-118) lowvig -10.5 (-101) +10.5 (-111) mybookieag -10.5 (-110) +10.5 (-110) Line movement: opened New Mexico -12.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -10.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 194 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Central Michigan 11.9 -- New Mexico 25.7 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- New Mexico margin -8.8 +2.0 +13.8 +25.9 +36.5 Total points 16.3 26.4 37.6 49.0 59.2 Probability New Mexico covers the market spread: 57.2% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: NEW MEXICO Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jack Layne QB Passing yards 174.0 90-259 Pass attempts 23.1 14-27 Completions 14.4 8-18 Passing TDs 0.70 50% 1+, 16% 2+ Rushing yards 20.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.23 21% 1+ Troy Omeire WR Receiving yards 43.8 8-70 Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.45 36% 1+, 8% 2+ Kiefer Sibley RB Rushing yards 40.1 -- Carries 8.0 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.60 45% 1+, 12% 2+ Shawn Miller WR Receiving yards 33.9 -- Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Scottre Humphrey RB Rushing yards 32.5 -- Carries 8.8 3-14 Rushing TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 10.0 -- Receptions 1.5 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.35 29% 1+ Cade Keith TE Receiving yards 22.6 -- Receptions 2.7 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.39 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Zhaiel Smith WR Receiving yards 19.2 -- Receptions 1.2 1-1 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Simon Mapa TE Receiving yards 14.9 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.70 50% 1+, 16% 2+ Jaxton Eck LB Tackles 9.1 6-14 Tavian Combs S Tackles 5.9 4-9 Mercury Swaim LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Elijah Brody DE Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ CENTRAL MICHIGAN Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Langston Lewis WR Rushing yards 4.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 66.3 31-113 Receptions 4.3 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Angel Flores QB Passing yards 55.0 -- Pass attempts 7.9 -- Completions 4.6 -- Passing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Rushing yards 56.5 16-105 Rushing TDs 0.76 53% 1+, 18% 2+ Brock Townsend RB Rushing yards 48.0 7-80 Carries 9.5 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.59 44% 1+, 12% 2+ Receiving yards 19.4 -- Receptions 2.0 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Tommy McIntosh WR Receiving yards 40.6 5-80 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.27 23% 1+ Nasir Williams WR Receiving yards 38.0 2-57 Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.35 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Vaughn Blue RB Rushing yards 37.8 -- Carries 8.5 3-14 Rushing TDs 0.29 26% 1+ Receiving yards 22.3 3-53 Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.23 21% 1+ Jaion Jackson DB Tackles 4.3 2-6 JJ Douglas DL Tackles 3.4 2-5 Sacks 0.29 25% 1+ Korver Demma DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ New Mexico recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Central Michigan recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10147