UNLV at Hawai'i NCAA, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 6, 2026 at 2:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Hawai'i by 0.6 points, giving them a 51% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 63.0 combined points, with Hawai'i at 31.7 and UNLV at 31.0. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: UNLV favored by 3.5 points, a 4.1-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Hawai'i's margin lands between -21.0 and +22.7 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Hawai'i -0.6 / UNLV +0.6 Moneyline: Hawai'i -106 / UNLV +106 Win probability: Hawai'i 51.4% / UNLV 48.6% Projected total: 63.0 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Hawai'i: 1488.0, UNLV: 1576.0 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Hawai'i UNLV ----------------- ------- ----- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue -7.2 -5.0 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +20.0 -- consecutive_road -- -15.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Hawai'i +3.5 / UNLV -3.5 Consensus moneyline: Hawai'i +118 / UNLV -142 Market no-vig win probability: Hawai'i 43.9% / UNLV 56.1% Spread range across books: +3.0 to +3.5 (2 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:03.986933+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Hawai'i EV% UNLV EV% ----------- ------- ------ ---- ------ betmgm +120 +13.1% -145 -17.9% betonlineag +125 +15.7% -145 -17.9% betrivers +118 +12.1% -148 -18.6% betus +125 +15.7% -145 -17.9% bovada +125 +15.7% -145 -17.9% draftkings +110 +8.0% -130 -14.1% fanduel +118 +12.1% -142 -17.2% lowvig +125 +15.7% -145 -17.9% mybookieag +120 +13.1% -153 -19.7% Spread: Book Hawai'i UNLV ----------- ----------- ----------- betmgm +3.0 (-110) -3.0 (-108) betonlineag +3.0 (-110) -3.0 (-110) betrivers +3.0 (-109) -3.0 (-114) betus +3.0 (-110) -3.0 (-110) bovada +3.0 (-110) -3.0 (-110) draftkings +2.5 (-108) -2.5 (-112) fanduel +3.5 (-128) -3.5 (+104) lowvig +3.0 (-106) -3.0 (-106) mybookieag +2.5 (-110) -2.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Hawai'i +1.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now +3.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 193 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: UNLV 31.0 -- Hawai'i 31.7 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------- ----- ----- ---- ----- ----- Hawai'i margin -21.0 -11.0 +0.7 +12.2 +22.7 Total points 41.4 51.4 62.5 74.1 84.4 Probability Hawai'i covers the market spread: 59.4% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: HAWAI'I Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Micah Alejado QB Passing yards 251.2 167-326 Pass attempts 35.6 27-48 Completions 23.2 17-31 Passing TDs 2.39 91% 1+, 69% 2+ Rushing yards 8.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Pofele Ashlock WR Receiving yards 67.9 32-107 Receptions 5.1 3-9 Receiving TDs 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Cam Barfield RB Rushing yards 46.1 5-82 Carries 8.8 3-14 Rushing TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Receiving yards 17.4 -- Receptions 2.5 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Audric Harris WR Receiving yards 40.6 5-90 Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ DeVon Rice RB Rushing yards 31.5 -- Carries 8.1 2-12 Rushing TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Receiving yards 20.1 1-36 Receptions 2.8 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Tama Uiliata WR Receiving yards 31.2 -- Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.08 8% 1+ Devon Tauaefa TE Receiving yards 15.6 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jamih Otis LB Tackles 6.0 3-9 Kona Moore DB Tackles 5.0 3-12 Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina DL Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ Luther McCoy DL Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ UNLV Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jackson Arnold QB Passing yards 170.0 86-254 Pass attempts 26.3 18-38 Completions 16.5 10-24 Passing TDs 0.60 45% 1+, 12% 2+ Rushing yards 19.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.50 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Jai'Den Thomas RB Rushing yards 59.8 19-96 Carries 11.0 6-13 Rushing TDs 1.11 67% 1+, 30% 2+ Receiving yards 22.3 3-47 Receptions 3.1 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Taz Reddicks WR Receiving yards 52.1 16-108 Receptions 3.6 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jaylon Glover RB Rushing yards 47.7 7-91 Carries 7.9 2-12 Rushing TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Receiving yards 14.9 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Taeshaun Lyons WR Receiving yards 37.8 2-62 Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.31 27% 1+ Amorion Walker WR Receiving yards 36.3 1-59 Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Blesyng Alualu-Tuiolemotu LB Tackles 5.3 2-8 Jake Pope S Tackles 4.9 2-8 Lucas Conti DL Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ Elias Rudolph LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Hawai'i recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games UNLV recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------- ------ 2025 HAW 10 UNLV 38 UNLV 2024 UNLV 29 HAW 27 UNLV 2023 HAW 20 UNLV 44 UNLV ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10148