UCLA at California NCAA, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 6, 2026 at 2:30 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors California by 7.1 points, giving them a 66% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 59.1 combined points, with California at 33.1 and UCLA at 26.1. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: UCLA favored by 1.5 points, a 8.6-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, California's margin lands between -15.3 and +29.2 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: California -7.1 / UCLA +7.1 Moneyline: California -194 / UCLA +194 Win probability: California 66.0% / UCLA 34.0% Projected total: 59.1 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- California: 1449.1, UCLA: 1423.1 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor California UCLA ----------------- ---------- ----- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue -3.2 +3.0 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +10.2 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: California +1.5 / UCLA -1.5 Consensus moneyline: California +104 / UCLA -125 Market no-vig win probability: California 46.9% / UCLA 53.1% Spread range across books: +1.0 to +2.0 (7 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:03.989674+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book California EV% UCLA EV% ----------- ---------- ------ ---- ------ betmgm +100 +32.0% -120 -37.6% betonlineag +105 +35.3% -125 -38.8% betrivers -104 +29.4% -121 -37.9% betus -120 +21.0% +100 -32.0% draftkings -108 +27.1% -112 -35.6% fanduel +104 +34.6% -125 -38.8% lowvig +105 +35.3% -125 -38.8% mybookieag +100 +32.0% -127 -39.2% Spread: Book California UCLA ----------- ----------- ----------- betmgm +1.5 (-110) -1.5 (-110) betonlineag +1.5 (-105) -1.5 (-115) betrivers +1.0 (-110) -1.0 (-113) betus +1.5 (-110) -1.5 (-110) bovada +2.0 (-110) -2.0 (-110) draftkings +1.5 (-115) -1.5 (-105) fanduel +1.5 (-106) -1.5 (-114) lowvig +1.5 (-101) -1.5 (-111) Line movement: opened California -1.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now +1.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 194 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: UCLA 26.1 -- California 33.1 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- California margin -15.3 -4.6 +7.1 +18.7 +29.2 Total points 37.6 47.8 59.4 70.6 80.8 Probability California covers the market spread: 69.2% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: CALIFORNIA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele QB Passing yards 213.5 129-258 Pass attempts 36.6 28-44 Completions 23.6 18-29 Passing TDs 1.42 76% 1+, 42% 2+ Rushing yards -6.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Ashten Emory RB Rushing yards 77.5 36-157 Carries 11.0 6-16 Rushing TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Receiving yards 18.0 -- Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Adam Mohammed RB Rushing yards 69.1 28-131 Carries 10.5 5-19 Rushing TDs 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ Receiving yards 19.8 0-35 Receptions 2.0 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Chase Hendricks WR Receiving yards 47.7 12-79 Receptions 4.7 2-8 Receiving TDs 0.55 42% 1+, 10% 2+ Ian Strong WR Receiving yards 44.8 9-86 Receptions 4.3 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.41 34% 1+, 6% 2+ Mason Mini TE Receiving yards 30.9 7-53 Receptions 3.2 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.45 36% 1+, 8% 2+ Dorian Thomas TE Receiving yards 28.6 5-44 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Jordan King WR Receiving yards 26.7 -- Receptions 2.8 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Isaiah Crosby DB Tackles 5.0 3-7 Aiden Manutai DB Tackles 4.7 2-7 Joshua Pierce LB Sacks 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Jayden Wayne LB Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ UCLA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Nico Iamaleava QB Passing yards 170.6 86-222 Pass attempts 28.6 20-34 Completions 18.3 12-23 Passing TDs 1.09 66% 1+, 30% 2+ Rushing yards 39.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Wayne Knight RB Rushing yards 97.4 56-164 Carries 14.0 8-17 Rushing TDs 0.90 59% 1+, 23% 2+ Receiving yards 35.6 16-72 Receptions 3.1 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Leland Smith WR Receiving yards 66.5 31-129 Receptions 4.0 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Landon Ellis WR Receiving yards 62.6 27-107 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Jaivian Thomas RB Rushing yards 52.4 11-80 Carries 10.0 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Receiving yards 17.8 -- Receptions 2.0 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Mikey Matthews WR Receiving yards 35.5 -- Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Josh Phifer TE Receiving yards 12.6 -- Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.19 18% 1+ Brayden Loftin TE Receiving yards 10.1 -- Receptions 1.2 1-1 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Drew Spinogatti LB Tackles 5.8 3-11 Cole Martin DB Tackles 4.9 2-7 Sahir West DL Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Aiden Gobaira DL Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ California recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games UCLA recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2023 CAL 33 UCLA 7 CAL ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10149