Washington State at Washington NCAA, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 6, 2026 at 8:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Washington by 11.2 points, giving them a 74% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 33.9 combined points, with Washington at 22.5 and Washington State at 11.3. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Washington favored by 23.5 points, a 12.3-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Washington's margin lands between -11.5 and +33.5 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Washington -11.2 / Washington State +11.2 Moneyline: Washington -285 / Washington State +285 Win probability: Washington 74.0% / Washington State 26.0% Projected total: 33.9 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Washington: 1634.1, Washington State: 1534.1 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Washington Washington State ----------------- ---------- ---------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +2.0 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +15.0 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Washington -23.5 / Washington State +23.5 Consensus moneyline: Washington -3500 / Washington State +1280 Market no-vig win probability: Washington 93.1% / Washington State 6.9% Spread range across books: -23.5 to -23.5 (8 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:03.997053+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Washington EV% Washington State EV% ----------- ---------- ------ ---------------- ------- betmgm -2500 -23.0% +1200 +237.6% betonlineag -2250 -22.7% +1106 +213.2% betrivers -2500 -23.0% +1050 +198.7% betus -2600 -23.1% +1200 +237.6% bovada -3300 -23.7% +1100 +211.6% draftkings -3200 -23.7% +1400 +289.6% fanduel -3500 -23.9% +1280 +258.4% lowvig -2250 -22.7% +1106 +213.2% mybookieag -2524 -23.0% +920 +164.9% Spread: Book Washington Washington State ----------- ------------ ---------------- betmgm -23.5 (-108) +23.5 (-110) betonlineag -23.5 (-115) +23.5 (-105) betrivers -23.5 (-117) +23.5 (-107) betus -23.5 (-115) +23.5 (-105) bovada -23.5 (-115) +23.5 (-105) draftkings -22.5 (-105) +22.5 (-115) fanduel -23.5 (-114) +23.5 (-106) lowvig -23.5 (-111) +23.5 (-101) mybookieag -23.5 (-110) +23.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Washington -21.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -23.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 194 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Washington State 11.3 -- Washington 22.5 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------- ----- ---- ----- ----- ----- Washington margin -11.5 -0.5 +11.1 +23.0 +33.5 Total points 12.2 22.6 33.6 45.0 55.2 Probability Washington covers the market spread: 24.0% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: WASHINGTON Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Demond Williams Jr. QB Passing yards 193.0 109-272 Pass attempts 28.3 20-33 Completions 18.7 12-23 Passing TDs 2.01 87% 1+, 60% 2+ Rushing yards 35.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.47 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Jordan Washington RB Rushing yards 46.0 5-86 Carries 5.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Jayden Limar RB Rushing yards 44.8 4-78 Carries 8.8 3-13 Rushing TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Receiving yards 15.8 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Decker DeGraaf TE Receiving yards 40.2 16-72 Receptions 3.1 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Christian Moss WR Receiving yards 37.5 2-65 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Dezmen Roebuck WR Receiving yards 33.1 -- Receptions 3.6 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.51 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Chris Lawson WR Receiving yards 16.4 -- Receptions 1.9 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Xe'ree Alexander LB Tackles 7.1 4-10 Alex McLaughlin S Tackles 6.7 4-10 Dylan Robinson CB Sacks 0.14 13% 1+ Zaydrius Rainey-Sale LB Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ WASHINGTON STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Tony Freeman WR Receiving yards 47.2 12-82 Receptions 4.0 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.32 27% 1+ Kirby Vorhees RB Rushing yards 40.4 -- Carries 12.5 7-16 Rushing TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Receiving yards 12.2 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Maxwell Woods RB Rushing yards 31.4 -- Carries 7.5 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 15.8 -- Receptions 2.8 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Daniel Blood WR Receiving yards 25.4 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Trey Leckner TE Receiving yards 22.7 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Branden Ganashamoorthy WR Receiving yards 19.6 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jack Pedersen TE Receiving yards 16.5 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jaylen Thomas S Tackles 4.9 2-7 Nylan Brown LB Tackles 4.8 2-6 DJ Warner LB Sacks 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Linus Zunk DE Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Washington recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Washington State recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------- ------ 2025 WASH 59 WSU 24 WASH 2024 WSU 24 WASH 19 WSU 2023 WSU 21 WASH 24 WASH ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10151