Louisville at Ole Miss NCAA, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 6, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Ole Miss by 13.5 points, giving them a 78% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 53.4 combined points, with Ole Miss at 33.4 and Louisville at 19.8. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Ole Miss favored by 6.5 points, a 7.0-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Ole Miss's margin lands between -8.6 and +35.8 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Ole Miss -13.5 / Louisville +13.5 Moneyline: Ole Miss -354 / Louisville +354 Win probability: Ole Miss 78.0% / Louisville 22.0% Projected total: 53.4 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Ole Miss: 1755.0, Louisville: 1616.0 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Ole Miss Louisville ----------------- -------- ---------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +3.0 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +14.7 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Ole Miss -6.5 / Louisville +6.5 Consensus moneyline: Ole Miss -260 / Louisville +210 Market no-vig win probability: Ole Miss 69.1% / Louisville 30.9% Spread range across books: -6.5 to -6.5 (7 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:04.001622+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Ole Miss EV% Louisville EV% ----------- -------- ------ ---------- ------ betmgm -235 +11.2% +195 -35.1% betonlineag -250 +9.2% +207 -32.4% betrivers -265 +7.4% +195 -35.1% betus -250 +9.2% +210 -31.8% bovada -260 +8.0% +215 -30.7% draftkings -250 +9.2% +205 -32.9% fanduel -260 +8.0% +210 -31.8% mybookieag -265 +7.4% +200 -34.0% Spread: Book Ole Miss Louisville ----------- ----------- ----------- betmgm -6.5 (-115) +6.5 (-105) betonlineag -6.5 (-115) +6.5 (-105) betrivers -6.5 (-114) +6.5 (-109) betus -6.5 (-115) +6.5 (-105) bovada -6.5 (-120) +6.5 (+100) draftkings -6.5 (-118) +6.5 (-102) fanduel -6.5 (-118) +6.5 (-104) mybookieag -6.5 (-110) +6.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Ole Miss -6.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -6.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 194 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Louisville 19.8 -- Ole Miss 33.4 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Ole Miss margin -8.6 +2.0 +13.4 +25.1 +35.8 Total points 31.7 41.9 53.0 64.4 74.6 Probability Ole Miss covers the market spread: 66.4% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: OLE MISS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Trinidad Chambliss QB Passing yards 237.6 153-298 Pass attempts 33.5 25-42 Completions 21.3 15-27 Passing TDs 1.40 75% 1+, 41% 2+ Rushing yards 27.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.58 44% 1+, 12% 2+ Kewan Lacy RB Rushing yards 58.3 17-106 Carries 14.9 10-23 Rushing TDs 1.26 72% 1+, 36% 2+ Receiving yards 9.5 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Johntay Cook II WR Receiving yards 49.0 13-86 Receptions 4.2 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Makhi Frazier RB Rushing yards 44.4 3-73 Carries 12.2 6-16 Rushing TDs 0.10 9% 1+ Receiving yards 10.8 -- Receptions 2.7 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Deuce Alexander WR Rushing yards 10.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 39.5 4-74 Receptions 3.0 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Darrell Gill Jr. WR Receiving yards 32.0 -- Receptions 2.9 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.32 27% 1+ Caleb Odom TE Receiving yards 30.1 6-54 Receptions 2.3 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Keaton Thomas LB Tackles 7.3 4-10 Luke Ferrelli LB Tackles 6.5 4-9 Suntarine Perkins LB Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Jonathan Maldonado DE Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ LOUISVILLE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Tre Richardson WR Rushing yards 19.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 67.8 32-124 Receptions 4.2 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.65 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Isaac Brown RB Rushing yards 64.5 23-124 Carries 11.6 6-17 Rushing TDs 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ Receiving yards 12.9 -- Receptions 2.8 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Keyjuan Brown RB Rushing yards 62.6 22-111 Carries 11.0 6-16 Rushing TDs 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ Receiving yards 16.5 -- Receptions 1.8 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Lincoln Kienholz QB Passing yards 48.8 -- Pass attempts 6.5 -- Completions 5.0 -- Passing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Rushing yards 15.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Lawayne McCoy WR Receiving yards 44.1 8-81 Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Brody Foley TE Receiving yards 42.0 18-78 Receptions 3.6 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.68 49% 1+, 15% 2+ Kris Hughes WR Receiving yards 24.9 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jaleel Skinner TE Receiving yards 23.3 -- Receptions 2.6 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Koen Entringer DB Tackles 5.7 4-9 Stanquan Clark LB Tackles 5.0 2-8 Tyler Thompson DL Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Clev Lubin DL Sacks 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Ole Miss recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Louisville recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10152