Wisconsin at Notre Dame NCAA, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 6, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Notre Dame by 23.3 points, giving them a 90% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 40.3 combined points, with Notre Dame at 31.8 and Wisconsin at 8.5. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Notre Dame favored by 20.5 points, a 2.8-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Notre Dame's margin lands between +0.9 and +45.1 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Notre Dame -23.3 / Wisconsin +23.3 Moneyline: Notre Dame -882 / Wisconsin +882 Win probability: Notre Dame 89.8% / Wisconsin 10.2% Projected total: 40.3 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Notre Dame: 1786.8, Wisconsin: 1473.6 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Notre Dame Wisconsin ----------------- ---------- --------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue -1.8 +2.8 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +4.4 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Notre Dame -20.5 / Wisconsin +20.5 Consensus moneyline: Notre Dame -2100 / Wisconsin +1000 Market no-vig win probability: Notre Dame 91.3% / Wisconsin 8.7% Spread range across books: -21.0 to -20.5 (7 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:04.005502+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Notre Dame EV% Wisconsin EV% ----------- ---------- ----- --------- ------ betmgm -1400 -3.8% +950 +7.0% betonlineag -2000 -5.7% +1041 +16.3% betrivers -2000 -5.7% +900 +1.9% betus -2000 -5.7% +1050 +17.2% bovada -1800 -5.2% +850 -3.2% draftkings -1800 -5.2% +1000 +12.1% fanduel -2100 -5.9% +1000 +12.1% lowvig -2000 -5.7% +1041 +16.3% mybookieag -2019 -5.7% +859 -2.3% Spread: Book Notre Dame Wisconsin ----------- ------------ ------------ betmgm -20.5 (-110) +20.5 (-108) betonlineag -20.5 (-112) +20.5 (-108) betrivers -21.0 (-108) +21.0 (-115) betus -20.5 (-110) +20.5 (-110) bovada -20.5 (-110) +20.5 (-110) draftkings -20.5 (-112) +20.5 (-108) fanduel -20.5 (-115) +20.5 (-105) lowvig -20.5 (-108) +20.5 (-104) Line movement: opened Notre Dame -20.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -20.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 194 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Wisconsin 8.5 -- Notre Dame 31.8 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------- ---- ----- ----- ----- ----- Notre Dame margin +0.9 +11.9 +23.3 +35.0 +45.1 Total points 18.8 29.1 40.2 51.6 61.4 Probability Notre Dame covers the market spread: 57.0% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: NOTRE DAME Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- CJ Carr QB Passing yards 207.0 123-302 Pass attempts 25.5 17-34 Completions 16.4 10-22 Passing TDs 1.93 86% 1+, 57% 2+ Rushing yards 7.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Jordan Faison WR Receiving yards 51.5 16-83 Receptions 3.8 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.28 24% 1+ Aneyas Williams RB Rushing yards 43.5 2-73 Carries 8.2 2-12 Rushing TDs 0.82 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Mylan Graham WR Receiving yards 34.3 -- Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Quincy Porter WR Receiving yards 28.3 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Nolan James Jr. RB Rushing yards 22.3 -- Carries 5.9 0-7 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jack Larsen TE Receiving yards 14.9 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ty Washington TE Receiving yards 13.5 -- Receptions 2.6 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Drayk Bowen LB Tackles 6.0 3-10 Brauntae Johnson S Tackles 5.2 3-7 Boubacar Traore DL Sacks 0.69 50% 1+, 15% 2+ Keon Keeley DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ WISCONSIN Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Colton Joseph QB Passing yards 218.2 134-303 Pass attempts 25.5 17-31 Completions 14.8 8-19 Passing TDs 1.32 73% 1+, 38% 2+ Rushing yards 61.8 21-119 Rushing TDs 0.91 60% 1+, 23% 2+ Shamar Rigby WR Receiving yards 39.4 4-66 Receptions 2.9 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Abu Sama III RB Rushing yards 37.3 -- Carries 11.9 6-20 Rushing TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Receiving yards 6.3 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Malachi Coleman WR Receiving yards 31.1 -- Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Darrion Dupree RB Rushing yards 29.3 -- Carries 10.1 4-16 Rushing TDs 0.14 14% 1+ Receiving yards 9.0 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jacob Harris TE Receiving yards 20.3 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.42 34% 1+, 7% 2+ Chris Brooks Jr. WR Receiving yards 18.1 -- Receptions 1.7 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Grant Stec TE Receiving yards 18.0 -- Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Cooper Catalano LB Tackles 6.7 4-13 Mason Posa LB Tackles 6.6 4-12 Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Sebastian Cheeks LB Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Notre Dame recent form: 5-0 over last 5 games Wisconsin recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10153