SMU at Florida State NCAA, Week 1, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 7, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors SMU by 8.7 points, giving them a 69% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 43.1 combined points, with Florida State at 17.3 and SMU at 25.9. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: SMU favored by 3.5 points, a 5.2-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Florida State's margin lands between -30.9 and +13.9 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Florida State +8.7 / SMU -8.7 Moneyline: Florida State +226 / SMU -226 Win probability: Florida State 30.7% / SMU 69.3% Projected total: 43.1 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Florida State: 1446.5, SMU: 1667.4 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Florida State SMU ----------------- ------------- ---- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +0.0 +1.7 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +16.2 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Florida State +3.5 / SMU -3.5 Consensus moneyline: Florida State +138 / SMU -166 Market no-vig win probability: Florida State 40.2% / SMU 59.8% Spread range across books: +3.5 to +3.5 (1 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:04.012191+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Florida State EV% SMU EV% ----------- ------------- ------ ---- ------ betmgm +115 -34.0% -135 +20.6% betonlineag +125 -30.9% -145 +17.1% betrivers +112 -34.9% -139 +19.1% betus +120 -32.4% -140 +18.8% bovada +130 -29.4% -150 +15.5% draftkings +110 -35.5% -130 +22.6% fanduel +138 -26.9% -166 +11.0% lowvig +125 -30.9% -145 +17.1% mybookieag +110 -35.5% -140 +18.8% Spread: Book Florida State SMU ----------- ------------- ----------- betmgm +2.5 (-105) -2.5 (-115) betonlineag +2.0 (+105) -2.0 (-125) betrivers +2.5 (-110) -2.5 (-113) betus +2.0 (+105) -2.0 (-125) bovada +2.0 (+105) -2.0 (-125) draftkings +1.5 (-105) -1.5 (-115) fanduel +3.5 (-115) -3.5 (-105) lowvig +2.0 (+109) -2.0 (-122) mybookieag +2.5 (-110) -2.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Florida State +2.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now +3.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 193 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: SMU 25.9 -- Florida State 17.3 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- Florida State margin -30.9 -20.5 -8.7 +2.9 +13.9 Total points 22.3 32.0 43.1 54.2 64.4 Probability Florida State covers the market spread: 38.6% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: FLORIDA STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Ashton Daniels QB Passing yards 269.1 185-428 Pass attempts 29.5 21-45 Completions 17.8 12-28 Passing TDs 1.00 63% 1+, 26% 2+ Rushing yards 64.5 24-114 Rushing TDs 0.75 53% 1+, 17% 2+ Duce Robinson WR Receiving yards 81.5 46-139 Receptions 4.3 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.49 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Micahi Danzy WR Rushing yards 29.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Receiving yards 65.6 30-112 Receptions 3.5 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.49 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Quintrevion Wisner RB Rushing yards 51.6 10-88 Carries 12.4 7-19 Rushing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Receiving yards 16.6 -- Receptions 3.0 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.06 6% 1+ Samuel Singleton Jr. RB Rushing yards 43.4 2-74 Carries 9.9 4-16 Rushing TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Jayvan Boggs WR Receiving yards 42.7 7-65 Receptions 2.9 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Desirrio Riles TE Receiving yards 36.5 13-68 Receptions 2.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.10 9% 1+ Landen Thomas TE Receiving yards 20.6 -- Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Chris Jones LB Tackles 8.6 6-12 Ja'Bril Rawls DB Tackles 5.5 4-9 Mandrell Desir DL Sacks 0.69 50% 1+, 15% 2+ Rylan Kennedy DL Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ SMU Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Kevin Jennings QB Passing yards 244.3 160-302 Pass attempts 35.0 26-40 Completions 21.9 16-26 Passing TDs 1.86 84% 1+, 56% 2+ Rushing yards 7.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Kendrick Raphael RB Rushing yards 66.4 25-89 Carries 14.8 9-21 Rushing TDs 0.98 62% 1+, 26% 2+ Receiving yards 25.3 6-47 Receptions 3.3 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.09 8% 1+ Yannick Smith WR Receiving yards 55.0 19-102 Receptions 4.1 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.82 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Yamir Knight WR Receiving yards 54.1 18-106 Receptions 4.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.49 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Jalen Cooper WR Receiving yards 44.2 9-78 Receptions 2.8 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Dramekco Green RB Rushing yards 36.1 -- Carries 8.3 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Randy Pittman TE Receiving yards 25.6 2-40 Receptions 2.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Theo Melin Ohrstrom TE Receiving yards 22.0 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Alexander Kilgore LB Tackles 6.6 4-10 Tyren Polley S Tackles 5.6 4-8 Jarvis Lee S Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Marques White DE Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Florida State recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games SMU recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2024 FSU 16 SMU 42 SMU ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10154