Rutgers at Boston College NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 11, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Rutgers by 1.1 points, giving them a 53% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 56.4 combined points, with Boston College at 27.8 and Rutgers at 28.8. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Boston College's margin lands between -23.1 and +20.9 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Boston College +1.1 / Rutgers -1.1 Moneyline: Boston College +111 / Rutgers -111 Win probability: Boston College 47.4% / Rutgers 52.6% Projected total: 56.4 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Boston College: 1402.8, Rutgers: 1484.3 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Boston College Rutgers ----------------- -------------- ------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +3.2 +3.4 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector -1.4 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Rutgers 28.8 -- Boston College 27.8 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------------- ----- ----- ---- ----- ----- Boston College margin -23.1 -12.7 -1.1 +10.7 +20.9 Total points 35.2 45.3 56.6 68.1 77.9 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: BOSTON COLLEGE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Evan Dickens RB Rushing yards 90.8 50-198 Carries 15.0 10-26 Rushing TDs 2.01 86% 1+, 60% 2+ Receiving yards 17.3 -- Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Nolan Ray RB Rushing yards 44.2 3-80 Carries 7.2 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Receiving yards 16.4 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kaelan Chudzinski TE Receiving yards 39.9 16-72 Receptions 2.8 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.80 55% 1+, 19% 2+ VJ Wilkins WR Receiving yards 33.5 -- Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Javarius Green WR Receiving yards 28.9 -- Receptions 2.5 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Landon Wright WR Receiving yards 25.1 -- Receptions 1.5 -- Receiving TDs 0.35 29% 1+ KP Price DB Tackles 7.5 6-11 Anthony Palano LB Tackles 5.9 3-10 Kemori Dixon LB Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ Demetrius Ballard DE Sacks 0.21 19% 1+ RUTGERS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Dylan Lonergan QB Passing yards 231.9 148-403 Pass attempts 27.6 19-44 Completions 17.3 11-28 Passing TDs 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Rushing yards 0.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.16 14% 1+ Antwan Raymond RB Rushing yards 101.1 60-207 Carries 14.8 9-26 Rushing TDs 0.97 62% 1+, 26% 2+ Receiving yards 33.3 14-80 Receptions 2.8 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ KJ Duff WR Receiving yards 83.8 48-165 Receptions 4.3 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.79 55% 1+, 19% 2+ Clay Thevenin RB Rushing yards 72.7 32-130 Carries 10.4 5-12 Rushing TDs 0.81 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Receiving yards 35.2 16-62 Receptions 3.3 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kameron Anthony TE Receiving yards 36.2 12-61 Receptions 1.7 -- Receiving TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Ty Morris LB Tackles 6.3 4-8 Kaj Sanders DB Tackles 5.4 3-8 Malachi Davis DL Sacks 0.69 50% 1+, 15% 2+ Rondo Porter DL Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Boston College recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Rutgers recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10155