Missouri at Kansas NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 12, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Missouri by 1.9 points, giving them a 54% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 44.9 combined points, with Kansas at 21.4 and Missouri at 23.4. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Missouri favored by 6.5 points, a 4.6-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Kansas's margin lands between -23.9 and +20.4 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Kansas +1.9 / Missouri -1.9 Moneyline: Kansas +119 / Missouri -119 Win probability: Kansas 45.6% / Missouri 54.4% Projected total: 44.9 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Kansas: 1460.2, Missouri: 1570.7 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Kansas Missouri ----------------- ------ -------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +3.5 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +14.1 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Kansas +6.5 / Missouri -6.5 Consensus moneyline: Kansas +198 / Missouri -245 Market no-vig win probability: Kansas 32.1% / Missouri 67.9% Spread range across books: +6.5 to +6.5 (2 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:04.015641+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Kansas EV% Missouri EV% ---------- ------ ------ -------- ------ betrivers +195 +34.4% -250 -23.8% draftkings +195 +34.4% -238 -22.7% fanduel +198 +35.8% -245 -23.4% mybookieag +212 +42.2% -285 -26.5% Spread: Book Kansas Missouri ---------- ----------- ----------- betrivers +6.5 (-110) -6.5 (-113) draftkings +7.0 (-108) -7.0 (-112) fanduel +6.5 (-105) -6.5 (-115) Line movement: opened Kansas +7.0 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now +6.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 194 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Missouri 23.4 -- Kansas 21.4 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- Kansas margin -23.9 -13.7 -2.1 +9.7 +20.4 Total points 23.6 33.6 44.6 56.0 66.5 Probability Kansas covers the market spread: 59.9% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: KANSAS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Chase Jenkins QB Passing yards 107.7 23-158 Pass attempts 19.4 10-26 Completions 12.8 6-18 Passing TDs 0.80 55% 1+, 19% 2+ Rushing yards 32.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Nik McMillan WR Receiving yards 74.3 39-133 Receptions 5.3 3-8 Receiving TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Nahzae Cox WR Receiving yards 42.7 7-71 Receptions 3.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Cam Pickett WR Receiving yards 39.4 4-58 Receptions 4.2 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Dylan Edwards RB Rushing yards 38.9 -- Carries 11.3 6-21 Rushing TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Yasin Willis RB Rushing yards 38.2 -- Carries 12.5 7-15 Rushing TDs 0.08 8% 1+ Receiving yards 9.9 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Carson Bruhn TE Receiving yards 18.1 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jailen Butler TE Receiving yards 14.5 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Trey Lathan LB Tackles 7.0 4-10 Jibreel Al-Amin LB Tackles 5.5 2-8 Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ Blake Herold DT Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ MISSOURI Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Austin Simmons QB Passing yards 173.5 89-334 Pass attempts 22.2 14-38 Completions 13.4 7-23 Passing TDs 0.84 57% 1+, 20% 2+ Rushing yards 20.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Ahmad Hardy RB Rushing yards 91.2 50-200 Carries 14.7 9-21 Rushing TDs 0.88 59% 1+, 22% 2+ Receiving yards 12.0 -- Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jamal Roberts RB Rushing yards 66.9 26-117 Carries 10.4 5-15 Rushing TDs 0.38 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 18.6 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Caleb Goodie WR Receiving yards 44.0 8-75 Receptions 3.3 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Donovan Olugbode WR Receiving yards 40.5 5-64 Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Cayden Lee WR Receiving yards 37.9 2-66 Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Brett Norfleet TE Receiving yards 22.6 -- Receptions 2.8 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Jordon Harris TE Receiving yards 18.1 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Robert Woodyard Jr. LB Tackles 6.2 4-9 Nicholas Rodriguez LB Tackles 6.0 3-10 Mark Hensley DT Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Kensley Louidor-Faustin S Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Kansas recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Missouri recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ----- ------ ------ 2025 KU 31 MIZ 42 MIZ ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10156