Southern Miss at Auburn NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 12, 2026 at 11:45 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Auburn by 10.2 points, giving them a 72% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 44.6 combined points, with Auburn at 27.4 and Southern Miss at 17.2. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Auburn's margin lands between -11.7 and +32.4 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Auburn -10.2 / Southern Miss +10.2 Moneyline: Auburn -260 / Southern Miss +260 Win probability: Auburn 72.3% / Southern Miss 27.7% Projected total: 44.6 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Auburn: 1471.7, Southern Miss: 1375.8 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Auburn Southern Miss ----------------- ------ ------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +3.3 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +4.6 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Southern Miss 17.2 -- Auburn 27.4 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------- ----- ---- ----- ----- ----- Auburn margin -11.7 -1.5 +10.2 +21.7 +32.4 Total points 23.3 33.3 44.5 55.9 66.2 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: AUBURN Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Byrum Brown QB Passing yards 232.0 148-276 Pass attempts 28.6 20-38 Completions 19.0 13-24 Passing TDs 2.03 87% 1+, 60% 2+ Rushing yards 79.8 39-109 Rushing TDs 1.11 67% 1+, 30% 2+ Jeremiah Cobb RB Rushing yards 70.8 30-121 Carries 12.5 7-21 Rushing TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Receiving yards 20.6 1-36 Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Keshaun Singleton WR Receiving yards 68.0 32-108 Receptions 4.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.66 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Nykahi Davenport RB Rushing yards 62.9 22-104 Carries 10.4 5-15 Rushing TDs 0.85 57% 1+, 21% 2+ Receiving yards 15.6 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jeremiah Koger WR Receiving yards 58.9 23-95 Receptions 4.1 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.77 54% 1+, 18% 2+ Chas Nimrod WR Receiving yards 58.7 23-104 Receptions 3.8 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Jake Johnson TE Receiving yards 43.5 20-76 Receptions 2.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Jonathan Echols TE Receiving yards 30.2 6-46 Receptions 1.8 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.28 25% 1+ Xavier Atkins LB Tackles 8.1 5-11 Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Fred Gaskin III S Tackles 4.6 2-7 Cody Sigler DL Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ SOUTHERN MISS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Landry Lyddy QB Passing yards 201.7 117-367 Pass attempts 26.3 18-53 Completions 16.5 10-35 Passing TDs 0.63 47% 1+, 13% 2+ Rushing yards 8.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.32 27% 1+ Davis Dalton WR Receiving yards 37.8 2-57 Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Brandon Hood RB Rushing yards 36.4 -- Carries 10.5 5-17 Rushing TDs 0.09 8% 1+ Receiving yards 12.6 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Robert Briggs RB Rushing yards 28.5 -- Carries 7.9 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 12.8 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Melvin Spriggs LB Tackles 4.9 2-9 Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ Mathis Haygood LB Tackles 4.4 2-8 Jameer Lewis DL Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Auburn recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Southern Miss recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10157