New Mexico State at Hawai'i NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 13, 2026 at 3:59 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Hawai'i by 16.9 points, giving them a 83% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 58.1 combined points, with Hawai'i at 37.5 and New Mexico State at 20.8. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Hawai'i's margin lands between -5.5 and +39.0 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Hawai'i -16.9 / New Mexico State +16.9 Moneyline: Hawai'i -484 / New Mexico State +484 Win probability: Hawai'i 82.9% / New Mexico State 17.1% Projected total: 58.1 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Hawai'i: 1488.0, New Mexico State: 1300.9 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Hawai'i New Mexico State ----------------- ------- ---------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue -3.2 -5.0 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +20.0 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: New Mexico State 20.8 -- Hawai'i 37.5 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Hawai'i margin -5.5 +5.2 +16.9 +28.5 +39.0 Total points 36.8 46.8 58.3 69.6 79.6 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: HAWAI'I Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Micah Alejado QB Passing yards 262.5 178-340 Pass attempts 35.6 27-48 Completions 23.2 17-31 Passing TDs 2.92 95% 1+, 79% 2+ Rushing yards 9.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Pofele Ashlock WR Receiving yards 63.8 28-101 Receptions 5.1 3-9 Receiving TDs 0.73 52% 1+, 16% 2+ Cam Barfield RB Rushing yards 44.1 3-78 Carries 8.8 3-14 Rushing TDs 0.35 29% 1+ Receiving yards 16.7 -- Receptions 2.5 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Audric Harris WR Receiving yards 38.2 3-84 Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.29 25% 1+ DeVon Rice RB Rushing yards 30.2 -- Carries 8.1 2-12 Rushing TDs 0.31 27% 1+ Receiving yards 19.3 -- Receptions 2.8 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.31 27% 1+ Tama Uiliata WR Receiving yards 29.3 -- Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.14 14% 1+ Devon Tauaefa TE Receiving yards 18.8 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jamih Otis LB Tackles 6.0 3-9 Kona Moore DB Tackles 5.0 3-12 Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina DL Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ Luther McCoy DL Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ NEW MEXICO STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Adam Damante QB Passing yards 203.1 119-357 Pass attempts 28.5 20-51 Completions 18.2 12-34 Passing TDs 1.01 64% 1+, 27% 2+ Rushing yards 7.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.27 24% 1+ TK King WR Rushing yards 12.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 66.5 31-126 Receptions 4.7 2-8 Receiving TDs 0.41 34% 1+, 6% 2+ Brodie Malone-Bradford WR Receiving yards 46.8 11-80 Receptions 3.3 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.31 27% 1+ Dijon Stanley RB Rushing yards 42.7 2-78 Carries 8.6 3-11 Rushing TDs 0.32 27% 1+ Receiving yards 16.6 -- Receptions 2.8 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Lyndon Ravare WR Receiving yards 36.2 1-63 Receptions 2.7 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Isaiah Rudison RB Rushing yards 28.2 -- Carries 6.4 1-8 Rushing TDs 0.32 27% 1+ Receiving yards 12.5 -- Receptions 2.5 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ray Lotten TE Receiving yards 27.4 4-48 Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Tory Gethers LB Tackles 7.0 4-11 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Sone Aupiu LB Tackles 6.7 4-10 Henry Davis III DL Sacks 0.14 13% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Hawai'i recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games New Mexico State recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------ ------ 2023 NMSU 17 HAW 20 HAW ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10158