South Florida at Army NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 12, 2026 at 4:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Army by 5.0 points, giving them a 62% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 50.8 combined points, with Army at 28.1 and South Florida at 23.0. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Army's margin lands between -17.0 and +27.5 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Army -5.0 / South Florida +5.0 Moneyline: Army -160 / South Florida +160 Win probability: Army 61.5% / South Florida 38.5% Projected total: 50.8 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Army: 1574.3, South Florida: 1568.8 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Army South Florida ----------------- ---- ------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +0.9 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +7.7 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: South Florida 23.0 -- Army 28.1 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------ ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Army margin -17.0 -6.9 +5.3 +16.9 +27.5 Total points 29.7 39.7 51.0 62.3 72.2 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: ARMY Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Cale Hellums QB Passing yards 97.3 13-138 Pass attempts 10.7 2-14 Completions 6.6 0-9 Passing TDs 0.35 30% 1+ Rushing yards 86.3 46-129 Rushing TDs 1.64 80% 1+, 49% 2+ Brady Anderson WR Receiving yards 51.4 16-84 Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Godspower Nwawuihe RB Rushing yards 42.1 1-111 Carries 9.3 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Samari Howard WR Rushing yards 12.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 27.9 -- Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Carson Smith RB Rushing yards 26.4 -- Carries 7.5 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Parker Poloskey TE Receiving yards 26.1 2-36 Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.32 27% 1+ Tobi Olawole WR Receiving yards 12.0 -- Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Stephen Nnadozie S Tackles 3.6 2-6 Jaydan Mayes CB Tackles 3.6 2-6 Cole Searight DB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Jack Bousum DL Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ SOUTH FLORIDA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Michael Van Buren Jr. QB Passing yards 174.5 90-274 Pass attempts 26.5 18-41 Completions 16.2 10-26 Passing TDs 1.03 64% 1+, 28% 2+ Rushing yards 21.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Mudia Reuben WR Receiving yards 48.1 12-101 Receptions 3.6 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.49 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Kenny Odom WR Rushing yards 14.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 41.3 6-71 Receptions 4.8 2-8 Receiving TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Alvon Isaac RB Rushing yards 40.3 -- Carries 8.3 2-12 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 21.2 2-42 Receptions 2.3 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Arhmad Branch WR Receiving yards 34.9 -- Receptions 2.3 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Wyatt Sullivan TE Receiving yards 18.8 -- Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Tavin Ward S Tackles 5.9 4-10 Ayden Jackson DB Tackles 5.8 4-8 Shamar Meikle LB Sacks 0.29 25% 1+ MarShon Oxley LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Army recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games South Florida recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10159