Old Dominion at Virginia Tech NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 12, 2026 at 4:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Old Dominion by 13.2 points, giving them a 77% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 50.4 combined points, with Virginia Tech at 18.7 and Old Dominion at 31.8. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Virginia Tech's margin lands between -35.7 and +8.9 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Virginia Tech +13.2 / Old Dominion -13.2 Moneyline: Virginia Tech +343 / Old Dominion -343 Win probability: Virginia Tech 22.6% / Old Dominion 77.4% Projected total: 50.4 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Virginia Tech: 1374.5, Old Dominion: 1637.0 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Virginia Tech Old Dominion ----------------- ------------- ------------ elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +3.6 +2.0 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +1.8 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Old Dominion 31.8 -- Virginia Tech 18.7 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------------- ----- ----- ----- ---- ---- Virginia Tech margin -35.7 -24.9 -13.0 -1.3 +8.9 Total points 29.2 39.3 50.5 61.6 72.0 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: VIRGINIA TECH Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Ethan Grunkemeyer QB Passing yards 139.9 56-192 Pass attempts 24.8 16-35 Completions 16.3 10-23 Passing TDs 0.78 54% 1+, 18% 2+ Rushing yards -0.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Marcellous Hawkins RB Rushing yards 51.8 11-91 Carries 10.8 6-17 Rushing TDs 0.06 6% 1+ Receiving yards 10.7 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.09 8% 1+ Que'Sean Brown WR Receiving yards 50.8 15-108 Receptions 4.3 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.55 42% 1+, 10% 2+ Ayden Greene WR Receiving yards 46.5 11-75 Receptions 2.9 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Bill Davis RB Rushing yards 46.0 5-78 Carries 11.8 6-15 Rushing TDs 0.19 18% 1+ Receiving yards 14.1 -- Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Marlion Jackson WR Receiving yards 45.6 10-80 Receptions 2.9 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Luke Reynolds TE Receiving yards 17.0 -- Receptions 2.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ja'Ricous Hairston TE Receiving yards 11.8 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Kaleb Spencer LB Tackles 6.6 4-9 Noah Chambers LB Tackles 5.5 2-7 Kemari Copeland DL Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Jason Abbey DL Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ OLD DOMINION Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Quinn Henicle QB Passing yards 119.4 35-190 Pass attempts 20.5 12-33 Completions 10.3 4-16 Passing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Rushing yards 34.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Devin Roche RB Rushing yards 72.2 31-136 Carries 11.6 6-18 Rushing TDs 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Receiving yards 16.5 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Maurki James RB Rushing yards 45.9 5-78 Carries 8.6 3-13 Rushing TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Receiving yards 20.1 1-35 Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ TJ Johnson WR Receiving yards 37.5 2-55 Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.35 29% 1+ Sidney Mbanasor WR Receiving yards 36.3 1-57 Receptions 2.3 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Leon Haughton Jr. TE Receiving yards 17.6 -- Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Mario Easterly S Tackles 5.8 4-8 Zion Frink CB Tackles 5.3 4-9 Hunter Malecki DL Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Javen Gibson DL Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Virginia Tech recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Old Dominion recent form: 5-0 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 ODU 45 VT 26 ODU 2024 VT 37 ODU 17 VT 2023 ODU 17 VT 36 VT ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10160