Arizona State at Texas A&M NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 12, 2026 at 4:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Texas A&M by 11.6 points, giving them a 75% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 51.4 combined points, with Texas A&M at 31.6 and Arizona State at 20.0. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Texas A&M favored by 14.5 points, a 2.9-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Texas A&M's margin lands between -10.0 and +33.8 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Texas A&M -11.6 / Arizona State +11.6 Moneyline: Texas A&M -296 / Arizona State +296 Win probability: Texas A&M 74.8% / Arizona State 25.2% Projected total: 51.4 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Texas A&M: 1667.3, Arizona State: 1559.6 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Texas A&M Arizona State ----------------- --------- ------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +0.8 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +12.9 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Texas A&M -14.5 / Arizona State +14.5 Consensus moneyline: Texas A&M -650 / Arizona State +470 Market no-vig win probability: Texas A&M 83.2% / Arizona State 16.8% Spread range across books: -16.5 to -14.5 (3 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-10T12:20:04.531355+00:00 -- STALE, hasn't refreshed recently): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Texas A&M EV% Arizona State EV% ---------- --------- ------ ------------- ------ draftkings -650 -13.7% +470 +43.8% mybookieag -725 -14.9% +450 +38.7% Spread: Book Texas A&M Arizona State ---------- ------------ ------------- betrivers -16.5 (-109) +16.5 (-113) draftkings -14.5 (-112) +14.5 (-108) mybookieag -14.5 (-110) +14.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Texas A&M -14.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -14.5 (August 10, 2026 at 12:20 PM UTC), 115 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Arizona State 20.0 -- Texas A&M 31.6 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ---------------- ----- ---- ----- ----- ----- Texas A&M margin -10.0 -0.2 +11.5 +23.2 +33.8 Total points 30.0 40.1 51.5 62.9 73.0 Probability Texas A&M covers the market spread: 43.2% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: TEXAS A&M Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Marcel Reed QB Passing yards 262.8 178-362 Pass attempts 30.0 22-37 Completions 18.8 12-24 Passing TDs 1.81 84% 1+, 54% 2+ Rushing yards 47.1 7-83 Rushing TDs 0.69 50% 1+, 15% 2+ Mario Craver WR Rushing yards 20.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Receiving yards 55.9 20-88 Receptions 4.1 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ashton Bethel-Roman WR Receiving yards 54.6 19-100 Receptions 2.9 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Rueben Owens II RB Rushing yards 54.5 13-94 Carries 11.9 6-17 Rushing TDs 0.55 42% 1+, 10% 2+ Receiving yards 16.8 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Richie Anderson TE Receiving yards 38.1 14-69 Receptions 3.2 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Isaiah Horton WR Receiving yards 37.2 2-61 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.66 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Houston Thomas TE Receiving yards 36.6 13-68 Receptions 3.1 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Jamarion Morrow RB Rushing yards 21.3 -- Carries 6.4 1-9 Rushing TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Receiving yards 19.2 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.44 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Ray Coney LB Tackles 9.0 6-12 Tawfiq Byard S Tackles 6.5 4-10 Ryan Henderson DE Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Dalton Brooks S Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ARIZONA STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Cutter Boley QB Passing yards 171.7 87-242 Pass attempts 31.2 22-41 Completions 20.0 14-28 Passing TDs 1.35 74% 1+, 39% 2+ Rushing yards 8.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.11 11% 1+ Omarion Miller WR Receiving yards 61.9 26-99 Receptions 4.1 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.84 57% 1+, 21% 2+ Demarius Robinson RB Rushing yards 53.3 12-86 Carries 9.9 4-17 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 28.5 9-84 Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Reed Harris WR Receiving yards 51.1 15-88 Receptions 3.6 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Jalen Moss WR Receiving yards 43.2 8-86 Receptions 3.0 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Kyson Brown RB Rushing yards 28.4 -- Carries 8.5 3-12 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Anthony Miller TE Receiving yards 23.0 -- Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Khamari Anderson TE Receiving yards 10.6 -- Receptions 1.2 1-1 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Owen Long LB Tackles 10.4 8-15 Lyrik Rawls DB Tackles 6.1 4-9 Clayton Smith DE Sacks 0.57 44% 1+, 11% 2+ Emar'rion Winston DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Texas A&M recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Arizona State recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10161