Oregon at Oklahoma State NCAA, Week 2, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 12, 2026 at 4:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Oregon by 25.2 points, giving them a 91% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 48.2 combined points, with Oklahoma State at 11.4 and Oregon at 36.6. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Oregon favored by 17.5 points, a 7.7-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Oklahoma State's margin lands between -47.4 and -3.0 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. Injury watch: Jake Springfield (Questionable). ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Oklahoma State +25.2 / Oregon -25.2 Moneyline: Oklahoma State +1058 / Oregon -1058 Win probability: Oklahoma State 8.6% / Oregon 91.4% Projected total: 48.2 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Oklahoma State: 1266.3, Oregon: 1794.5 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Oklahoma State Oregon ----------------- -------------- ------ elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +2.2 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +16.6 -- consecutive_road -- -15.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Oklahoma State +17.5 / Oregon -17.5 Consensus moneyline: Oklahoma State +640 / Oregon -1000 Market no-vig win probability: Oklahoma State 12.9% / Oregon 87.1% Spread range across books: +17.5 to +17.5 (2 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:04.023462+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Oklahoma State EV% Oregon EV% ---------- -------------- ------ ------ ----- draftkings +675 -33.0% -1050 +0.1% fanduel +640 -36.1% -1000 +0.5% mybookieag +530 -45.6% -901 +1.5% Spread: Book Oklahoma State Oregon ---------- -------------- ------------ betrivers +17.5 (-113) -17.5 (-110) draftkings +18.5 (-108) -18.5 (-112) fanduel +17.5 (-110) -17.5 (-110) mybookieag +18.5 (-110) -18.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Oklahoma State +19.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now +17.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 194 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Oregon 36.6 -- Oklahoma State 11.4 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ---- Oklahoma State margin -47.4 -36.9 -25.3 -13.6 -3.0 Total points 26.5 36.8 47.9 59.4 69.5 Probability Oklahoma State covers the market spread: 32.8% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: OKLAHOMA STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Drew Mestemaker QB Passing yards 201.6 117-296 Pass attempts 31.5 23-43 Completions 21.4 15-28 Passing TDs 2.48 92% 1+, 71% 2+ Rushing yards 4.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.35 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Wyatt Young WR Rushing yards 11.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Receiving yards 82.5 47-176 Receptions 5.4 4-8 Receiving TDs 1.14 68% 1+, 32% 2+ Caleb Hawkins RB Rushing yards 74.2 33-143 Carries 14.8 9-24 Rushing TDs 1.69 82% 1+, 50% 2+ Receiving yards 23.0 4-49 Receptions 2.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.28 24% 1+ Ayo Adeyi RB Rushing yards 47.5 6-97 Carries 10.1 4-18 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Rodney Harris II WR Receiving yards 47.5 12-81 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Miles Coleman WR Receiving yards 45.8 10-90 Receptions 3.6 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Ethan Wesloski LB Tackles 8.7 6-13 Isaiah Chisom LB Tackles 5.4 2-8 Billy Walton III DE Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Malik Charles DE Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ OREGON Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Dante Moore QB Passing yards 248.9 165-351 Pass attempts 28.5 20-36 Completions 19.5 14-26 Passing TDs 1.81 84% 1+, 54% 2+ Rushing yards 8.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Iverson Hooks WR Receiving yards 66.6 31-119 Receptions 5.4 4-8 Receiving TDs 0.77 54% 1+, 18% 2+ Jordon Davison RB Rushing yards 64.7 24-97 Carries 10.7 5-15 Rushing TDs 0.98 62% 1+, 26% 2+ Receiving yards 15.8 -- Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jamari Johnson TE Receiving yards 57.3 33-85 Receptions 3.1 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.35 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Dierre Hill Jr. RB Rushing yards 50.9 10-81 Carries 6.7 1-8 Rushing TDs 0.24 22% 1+ Receiving yards 20.7 1-34 Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Jeremiah McClellan WR Receiving yards 46.6 11-74 Receptions 3.5 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.31 26% 1+ Dakorien Moore WR Receiving yards 44.2 8-72 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.31 26% 1+ Koi Perich DB Tackles 6.2 4-9 Teitum Tuioti LB Tackles 5.0 2-7 Sacks 0.75 53% 1+, 17% 2+ Nasir Wyatt LB Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Oklahoma State recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Oregon recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 OKST 3 ORE 69 ORE Injury/hazard flags: Player Pos Team Status ---------------- --- ---- ------------ Jake Springfield OL OKST Questionable ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10162